Here's reality: Hundreds of hotshot money managers and
analysts convened at the Marriott Marquis in New York last
fall to attend
JPMorgan Chase 's annual Asia Pacific and
Emerging Markets Equity Conference. My guarantee to you is
that they weren't there because they're scared of investing
in emerging-markets stocks.
But you very well might be ... and I can't necessarily
blame you.
Some very scary numbers
China, India, Indonesia, Brazil ... what do these
emerging markets have in common? They were all absolutely
crushed in 2008.
And even though this year has been better for these
markets, it has still been a volatile year for those who
naively came to believe (thanks to the 2003 to 2007 period)
that emerging-markets investing was all about outsized gains.
Thus, many are scurrying away with their tails between their
legs.
This, however, is precisely the wrong time for that kind
of reaction.
Take China, for example
The first session at the closed-door conference came
courtesy of famed author, investor, and Princeton economist
Burton Malkiel. His presentation, titled "Investment
Strategies for the China Century," can be summarized as
follows:
1. Though China's GDP growth is slowing, it will remain
the fastest in the world.
2. If you're an American investor, you're lucky to have
even 2% exposure to China -- and that makes you
dangerously underexposed.
3. The recent decline in China stock valuations, together
with the magnitude and duration of China's potential growth,
makes today an "unprecedented investment opportunity."
Those are his words, not mine, though I do agree. The
question, of course, is how does the individual American
investor take advantage of this unprecedented
opportunity?
Your four options
If you're an American investor looking for maximum
returns and minimum hassle, then you have four ways to buy
China:
1. Buy a Chinese index fund, such as the
Xinhua China 25 .
2. Buy an actively managed mutual fund -- such as
Matthews China -- that is concentrated in
China.
3. Buy multinational corporations such as
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ),
Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), and even
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD) that are
expanding in China and that have made doing business in China
a significant part of their growth strategy.
4. Buy individual Chinese stocks such as
KongZhong (Nasdaq: KONG) and
Cogo Group (Nasdaq: COGO) that trade on U.S.
exchanges.
Each one of these approaches comes with its own set of
pluses and minuses. Though the index fund is low-cost, for
example, it will condemn your portfolio to holding nothing
but enormous, bureaucratic, state-owned enterprises such as
China Telecom (NYSE: CHA). The actively
managed fund might make more discerning stock picks, but it's
also expensive -- and Malkiel's research showed that most
actively managed China funds substantially underperform the
index.
Can you pick your own stocks?
That leaves two options: picking your own
multinationals or picking your own Chinese stocks. In fact,
Malkiel recommends you do both.
Of course, you'll probably feel more comfortable
researching U.S. stocks that have a CEO who speaks your
language (literally), that sell products familiar to you, and
that release financials you're more likely to trust. Continued... |