Think back to the fall of 2007. Happy times, indeed. The
market was rising, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns still
existed, and we were blissfully unaware of the potential
danger of weather balloons.
At that time -- perhaps overcome with confidence -- my
colleague Joe Magyer and I penned an article asking why you
weren't
earning 50% annual returns. This, in fact, was a
challenge posed to us by Motley Fool CEO and co-founder Tom
Gardner, and one we spent some time thinking about because,
well, we thought we might be able to pull it off.
The results of our brain strain
Our strategy to achieve this glorious return had three
steps:
1. Get out of index funds.
2. Protect our principal.
3. Invest in small, underfollowed stocks that are
likely to be mispriced.
Fast-forward to today. While I stand by those three steps,
if you had followed them for the past few years, you would
have subjected yourself to extraordinary volatility and (at
least temporary) losses.
And that's the catch-22: The only way to give yourself a
chance at massive returns is to expose your portfolio to
massive potential losses.Â
So are we idiots?
Since few individual investors are willing or
able to take that degree of risk, that two-year-old article
looks in hindsight like nothing more than a useless thought
experiment. Sorry for wasting your time.
But I've revised my thinking to make it more actionable
and relevant to you. Rather than chase 50% annual returns
across your entire portfolio, why not aim for them in a small
portion of your portfolio. That's called diversification, and
it reduces your risk of massive losses. As the same time, as
you'll see below, it also gives your portfolio the potential
to achieve
verymeaningful outperformance.
Here's what I mean by that
This past summer I traveled to China on our
annual
Global Gainsresearch trip, looking for stocks that
might double or more over the next three years. (Anything
less is generally not worth the hassle of investing in
China.) One of the companies we discovered in Inner Mongolia
was a small fertilizer company called
Yongye International (Nasdaq: YONG).
The stock was cheap, the management team savvy, and the
market opportunity enormous. In other words, it looked like a
promising investment. (To read more about the investment
opportunities in rural China, click
here.)
And it turned out to be just that
I made Yongye my top pick from that trip. But it wasn't
my only pick. Instead, I placed it within the context of a
broader basket of plays on the booming development taking
place in rural China. In fact, I told folks to buy four
stocks in addition to Yongye, with Yongye representing less
than half of a full 5% position. Here's what that basked
looked like in the end:
Company
Recommended Position Size
Yongye International
2.00%
China Green Agriculture (AMEX:
CGA)
1.00%
China Marine Food (AMEX: CMFO)
0.50%
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)
0.75%
China Mobile (NYSE: CHL)
0.75%
And here's what the returns have been from that basket
since we recommended it in July:
Company
Return
Yongye
185%
China Green
63%
China Marine
13%
Coca-Cola
11%
China Mobile Continued... |