Thanks to the recent rally, you may be feeling pretty good
about yourself. After all, as of Thursday's close,
everyDow member was up in value since March 9, with
staid companies such as
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT),
Disney (NYSE: DIS), and
FedEx (NYSE: FDX) posting gains of 80% or
more!
If you're new to the market, you may be thinking that
this stock picking stuff is
easy money. It's not -- and this recent rally cannot
continue. It's not in the nature of U.S. large caps to offer
such steady, significant returns. This market is seriously
out of whack.
That makes no sense
And while Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has
declared the recession "very likely over," unemployment still
hovers close to 10%, the credit markets are still anemic, and
consumer activity is being subsidized by the government.
You may say, "Yeah, but the market is
forward-looking." Sure it is, but it's not
thatforward-looking. Tack on the inflation that's
likely to result from
rampant deficit spendingand, well, tread carefully in
U.S. stocks.
What you can do
For these reasons, we continue to look outside
the U.S. for compelling stock ideas at
Motley Fool Global Gains
. We're particularly excited about the opportunities in
China, Brazil, India, Chile, and Peru.
Stocks in these countries today offer better valuations
relative to their future growth prospects -- and many have
been left behind by the recent rally. And the advantages over
the U.S. aren't necessarily the same from country to
country.
India has a younger workforce; Chile a large budget
surplus and abundant natural resources; China a massive
population with significant personal savings; Brazil and Peru
growing resource economies that are developing stronger and
stronger ties with China. Thus, these countries can hold up
to some degree even as the U.S. falters, though complete
decoupling is unlikely.
China's tiny
Yanglin Soybean , for example, is actually
down since March 9, and it now trades for a paltry 0.2 times
revenue. And while the company has struggled to make money
because it does not hedge soy bean prices at present, this is
a company that pays no taxes to the Chinese government, since
it's been classified as a Key Leading Enterprise in
Agriculture and is helping that country achieve its strategic
goal of becoming food-independent.
But if you look up Yanglin Soybean, you may be scared off.
It trades over the counter, the stock is illiquid, and the
board has no independent directors. There's no way to be sure
that the company cares a lick for outside shareholders.
It's time to take off the training wheels
These are legitimate concerns. But I've
already triedto assuage them. So today I point you to
Baupost Group's Seth Klarman's 1997 letter to
shareholders:
I frequently hear the argument that the rules are
different overseas: the accounting murky, the annual
reports unreadable, the currencies sometimes unhedgable.
All of these points are fair, but, rather than being
arguments to avoid foreign markets, they are instead
arguments to embrace them. After all, as an investor you
never have perfect information, and the biggest profits are
always available (just as they have been in the U.S.) when
competition and information are scarce.
The payoff to fundamental analysis rises
proportionately with the difficulty of performing
it.
Yes, I added that emphasis, because it's such a key point.
Klarman goes on to say that the highest return -- the
realmoney -- is made in markets where information is
scarce and management teams are not yet obviously
shareholder-oriented. Continued... |