Not too long ago, one of our
Motley Fool Global Gains
subscribers emailed me and asked me to take a look at a
company called Orient Paper (OPAI.OB). Though the stock was
Chinese, small, and traded over the counter, it had piqued
his interest because it looked so darn cheap.
As I began my own research, I quickly confirmed that, yes,
this stock looked darn cheap. At $0.55 per share (its price
at that point), it had a $25 million market cap and was
trading for less than 1 times sales and 2 times EBITDA.
The story does not end there
After studying Orient Paper's SEC filings, however, I
came away with five troubling questions.
First, until recently, the company had a 25-year-old CFO
who had worked in that position since she was 23 or so. That
seems like an awfully young and inexperienced C-level officer
for a publicly traded company. Given that so many small,
public Chinese companies struggle with internal controls even
after they've hired qualified CFOs and auditors, one has to
wonder whether Orient Paper has the same issues.
Second, the company keeps extraordinarily low levels of
inventory (just 2% of sales) while larger peers such as
International Paper and
Boise keep 9% to 13% of sales in inventory.
How can Orient Paper maintain such small inventories and
produce such significant sales growth, and what does that
mean for the sustainability of the growth story here?
Third, the company has a volatile customer list (with
major customers appearing and then disappearing from one year
to the next), yet has no advertising expenses and extremely
low SG&A expenses. If the company is not keeping
customers and not spending to promote itself to new
customers, how is it getting business? The 10-K tells us that
the company relies on its CEO for his "personal and business
contacts." But while contacts are a very good thing to have
in China, you don't ever want to be part-owner of a company
that relies entirely on the relationships of one key
individual.
Fourth, the company seems content to use its shares as
currency, despite its seemingly low valuation. For evidence
of that, note the 5 million shares the company issued to pay
a $500,000 consulting bill in 2008. What does this mean for
how it will treat outside shareholders going forward?
Finally, multiple insiders have loaned money to the
company at charitably low rates to fund working capital. If
this company is financially strong, why can't it source bank
debt or, better, self-fund?
Nor does it end there
After posting these questions on my blog, I
received a
response from Orient Paper's new CFO, Winston Yen. While
you can read his full response for yourself, he confirmed
that the company is very good at managing its inventories,
turning pulp into finished customer orders within days. He
also noted that the company used the proceeds from its
related-party loans to add a production line, and that the
company would not have been able to do so otherwise. And he
asserted that the company's consistently low levels of
accounts receivable show an operation that is legitimate and
efficient.
On the other hand, we have to take his word that the
financial compliance in place at the company is solid. He had
no explanation for why the company can't get bank debt to
fund growth, and he had "no comment" on the bizarre share
issuance to former consultants.
The point of this story
Now, if you find Mr. Yen's answers
satisfactory, then buy Orient Paper, because, yes, it does
still look cheap. I, however, will be watching and waiting
for at least a little while longer to try and verify the
quality of the business, and in an effort to do that, will be
seeing the company's investor presentation this week at a
conference in New York City.
It's always worth remembering, however, that high-quality
businesses don't normally sell for dirt cheap valuations --
note
Morningstar 's (Nasdaq:
MORN) enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 12. That's
particularly true of high-quality businesses in a
fast-growing economy like China's --
Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) trades for 13
times EBITDA. But it's also not impossible. There are 99
Chinese companies trading on the U.S. exchanges today for
less than 6 times EBITDA.
Are they all bargains? Of course not. But at
Global Gains
,we think there will be significant long-term
rewards for investors who are willing to be patient and
carefully study the likes of
Sinohub (AMEX: SIHI),
Wuhan Group (Nasdaq: WUHN), and
America Lorain (AMEX: ALN), among others. Continued... |