Brian Richards and I wrote back in March that we
thoughtthe
dollar might be doomed. That was because:
1. The United States has a massive and growing deficit.
2. The United States continues to generate significant
trade deficits.
3. The United States has become oh-so-willing to print
money out of thin air to meet its increasing obligations, and
to previously prop up the likes of
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC).
The more things change ...
Fast forward five months, and that willingness to print
and spend has only increased. None other than Warren Buffett
of the famously successful
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) put the nail
in the dollar's coffin in a
New York Timeseditorial last month.
He wrote, "Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory" and
concluded that "Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly
cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar's
destiny lies with Congress."
Lies
with Congress? If you know anything about Congress
-- I used to work in the political game -- then you know for
sure now that the dollar is doomed.
Deep breaths
This should be worrisome news if you earn a
dollar-based salary, keep a dollar-based bank account, or
invest in dollar-denominated U.S. stocks and bonds. Why?
Because as the dollar declines in value, so will all of your
earnings, savings, and investments. And that's scary stuff.
The good news for you is that the dollar's decline in
value over time won't happen in a vacuum. In order for the
dollar to decline, other world currencies must rise in value
against it. That means you can protect yourself -- and even
profit -- from the dollar's decline simply by buying stocks
that do business in other currencies, such as
PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) or
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), and
specifically in currencies that you suspect will rise against
the dollar over time.
Some currency candidates
Our
Motley Fool Global Gains
international stock research team believes that the
currencies that stand to benefit most are those that are
tender in countries that 1) are big and stable enough to
offer a credible alternative to the U.S. for countries that
are looking to stash their trade surpluses, 2) have
significant natural-resource assets that will become more and
more in demand over time, or 3) both.
Thus, candidates include the euro (simply because of
its scope, even though Europe has its own structural economic
problems), the Brazilian real, the Indonesian rupiah, the
Chinese yuan (should it become freely convertible), the
Chilean peso, and the Peruvian new sol.
What we don't know, however, is how this all will all play
out. So rather than bet on just one of these currencies, we
recommend that you buy a basket of stocks that will get you
exposure to all of them. Thus, even if political instability
triggers a decline in the rupiah or the new sol, you have
sanctuary in diversification.
With that last point in mind, I'm going to give you the
name of my No. 1 dollar protection stock -- one that I
consider a "Best Buy Now" in our
Global Gainsservice. But before I do that, know that
this stock is not the silver bullet. Indeed, to properly
protect yourself and position yourself to profit, you need a
globally oriented portfolio of stocks that will give you
exposure to a variety of currencies and markets.
But this stock is a great place to get started ...
My No. 1 dollar protection stock
Philip Morris International was spun off from
Altria in early 2008 to hold all of Altria's
foreign cigarette businesses. This includes those in Canada,
Latin America, Europe, and even a joint venture with China
National Tobacco.
Today, the company makes about 48% of its sales in the EU;
23% in eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; 19% in
Asia; and 10% in Latin America and Canada, though I'll note
that the company's European exposure is coming down over
time, since growth has been more rapid in the company's
emerging markets.
And while the company's earnings have recently been
dinged by a strong dollar, earnings going forward should
benefit from a significant currency tailwind as the dollar
declines against many of the other currencies Philip Morris
does business in. Add on a dividend yield near 5%, and this
stock will not only protect your savings from the dollar's
decline, but should also beat the market going forward.
Looking for more ideas
This is just one of the ways we're helping our
Global Gainsmembers protect themselves against a
falling U.S. dollar and gain exposure to emerging
international markets, which we expect will grow much faster
than the United States over the next decade.
To see the rest of our ideas, including plays on
Indonesia, Peru, Brazil, and rural China,
click hereto grab a free guest membership to
Global Gainsfree for the month. There is no
obligation to subscribe.
Already subscribe toGlobal Gains
? Log in at the top of
this page
.
Tim Hanson
is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains
. He owns shares of Philip Morris International, which is
aMotley Fool Global Gains
recommendation, and Berkshire Hathaway, which is
aStock Advisor
and anInside Value
recommendation. PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble
areIncome Investor
selections. The Motley Fool owns shares of Berkshire
Hathaway and Procter & Gamble. If the Fool's
disclosure policy
were written by Congress, it would be 50% less effective
and about 1,000 pages in length.
This article was originally published as
Read This Because the Dollar Is Doomedon
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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