Keep good records in case you get sued or audited -- or if
you just hope to learn from past experiences.
It's for that last reason (and, frankly,
the second ... curse you, IRS!) that I keep meticulous
records of my investments.
And so I found myself looking back over my recent
transaction history. I wanted to see what I had done since
October 2007 -- the beginning of what became a historic
market downturn -- and what that behavior revealed about my
state of mind during that tumultuous time ... and what we can
learn from it.
So let's take a trip back in time
...
October 2007 to May 2008
This was, for lack of a better term, the beginning of
the end, but it was a fairly benign beginning. While the
market was down 20% over this 8-month period, it was business
as usual in my portfolio, with two or three buys per month
into companies such as
3M (NYSE: MMM) and
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) that I not only
thought were compelling values, but also believed had the
financial strength to survive a coming downturn.
And while I thought at the time that I was a rational
master of my emotions, it's more likely I
was just getting duped by my amygdala. As Jason Zweig writes
in
Your Money and Your Brain,
“Because the amygdala [the reflexive part
of your brain] is so attuned to big changes, a sudden drop in
the market tends to be more upsetting than a longer, slower
decline.â€
Either way, I'd say I handled the slow decline from
October 2007 to May 2008 fairly well.
June 2008 to July 2008
Fast-forward two months, however, and the
market began to test my mettle. I followed up a sharp
near-10% decline in the market with a flurry of activity. But
rather than sell in fear, I went aggressively long -- making
13 purchases of volatile international stocks such as
Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) and
China Fire & Security (Nasdaq: CFSG) that
I believed had been unfairly oversold. Although it looked
savvy at first as the market briefly perked up in August,
this was a mistake.
It was not a mistake of fear, however, but rather one
of greed. And while Zweig suggests that investors tend to get
caught up in upward momentum, sending more and more money
into the market as stock prices rise, I, as a conditioned
value investor, got greedy just as prices dropped
sharply -- and ignored the data suggesting it could well get
worse.
It did.
August 2008 to January 2009
The market declined 35%, creating what may end
up being one of history's great buying
opportunities, and yet I couldn't make
more than a few buys here and there because I had used up my
excess powder prematurely in July.
Thus, rather than being in a position to take advantage of
this mega-drop, I was fully invested amid historic downside
volatility. This led to some sleepless nights and some tough
decisions in early February.
February 2009
If investing success is buying low and selling
high, then failure is the opposite. And yet there I was in
early February unloading stocks such as
Whole Foods (Nasdaq: WFMI) and
Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) at
50% discounts to where I'd bought
them.
Why? First, I was in too deep. My episode of greed in July
had caused me to invest more money in stocks that I felt
comfortable with. Thus, as the market continued to drop, I
was unable to stay unemotional.
Second, I fell victim to recency bias. As Zweig writes,
"The more recently [an event] occurred . . . the more
probable its recurrence will seem." Put those two facts
together and you can understand why my brain was pushing me
to take some money out of the stock market.
Fortunately, I wasn't totally
shell-shocked. I only moved out a little -- enough to restore
an analytical mindset. Further, rather than keep those sums
100% in cash, I put some in high-yield bonds, which were also
distressed and which have not wholly missed out on the recent
rebound (though they have not done as well as equities).
At the end of the day, these were defensive moves made
out of fear, moves that depressed my returns. And while it
frustrates me that I fell into one of
investing's psychological traps, I did end
up realizing a benefit.
March 2009 to present
With investor equilibrium restored, it was
back to business as usual in my portfolio with two or three
purchases per month. And just as the market began to turn in
March, I purchased shares of a speculative -- but, I
believed,
highlyundervalued -- Chinese company called
Yongye International (Nasdaq: YONG).
At the time it traded over-the-counter and did not yet
have a CFO or any independent directors on its board. The
stock, however, was dirt cheap at $1.70 per share.
Now, if I hadn't rebalanced my
portfolio in February, I don't think I
would have had the gumption to purchase this stock. But I was
back in my comfort zone, and I was able to pull the trigger.
I'm glad I did. Yongye has since
added a number of qualified individuals to its management
team and listed on the Nasdaq. Further, our
Global Gainsteam visited Yongye in China in June to
get a better handle on the business -- after which we called
it out as a top pick to our
Global Gainsmembers.
Yongye now trades for more than
$8 per share. I don't write this
to gloat or cherry-pick, but rather to highlight the
importance of having -- at all times -- a balanced portfolio
that allows you to make decisions untainted by emotion.
The takeaways
That's my story, but there
are three key takeaways for you as well. Here they are:
1. Never go all in.
I acted too soon in July, and that reduced my
flexibility, as well as my ability to remain unemotional
going forward.
2. Add money to the market on a regular basis.
Despite all of the research
I'd read and all of the contacts I have, I
was unable to anticipate the market's
near-term moves. I would have saved myself a lot of stress if
I had stuck to regular buys of great companies at great
prices.
3. Diversification matters.
Whether it's stocks or
bonds, domestic or foreign stocks, or small caps or large
caps, the defense that diversification provides truly does
provide peace of mind in times of crisis. Not only does it
help you lose less money as the market's
falling, but it can also allow you to stay unemotional and
analytical -- enabling you to take advantage of incredible
opportunities such as Yongye whenever they present
themselves.
We employ all of these lessons at
Motley Fool Global Gains
,where our team of analysts seeks to find value in
the world's very volatile emerging
markets. And while 2009 has been a particularly volatile year
for us, stocks like Yongye more than make up for it. To take
a look at all of our research and recommendations, simply
click hereto join
Global Gainsfree this month.
Already subscribe toGlobal Gains
? Log in at the top of
this page
.
Tim Hanson
is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains
. He owns shares of Yongye International, 3M, and Philip
Morris. Sotheby's is aMotley Fool
Hidden Gems
selection. Philip Morris is aGlobal Gains
recommendation. Starbucks and 3M areInside Value
picks. Whole Foods and Starbucks areStock Advisor
picks. The Motley Fool owns shares of Starbucks and has
this
disclosure policy
to make sure all of our analysts keep meticulous
records.
This article was originally published as
How I Timed the Marketon
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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