This past year was an exciting one to be an investor. At
one point in March, stocks were down
well more than 50%from their 2008 highs. Yet amid
this chaos, we at
Motley Fool Global Gainsidentified a promising small
company with a strong and growing core business that was
selling for a dirt cheap 4.5 times earnings.
Since we recommended that stock to our members in
October 2008, it's returned more than 400%. During that time,
it has also listed on a major exchange and vastly expanded
its production and distribution capacity.
But before I get to the stock, I want to tell you how
we found it, and provide a few points that can help you
identify similar things for yourself.
You find what you're looking for
You may have heard (sometime, somewhere) that
the market is efficient. That means that at any moment, all
of the available information on a stock has been incorporated
into its price. While I believe that's generally true, I
don't believe it's true all the time. What's more, it's
lesstrue in certain market segments than others.
For example, take popular tech names like
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) or
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM). Both are
tracked by more than 25 sell-side analysts, have earned a
rabid following of fans and detractors, and their products
and plans are reported on daily in the media. If you choose
to buy or sell either stock, you're likely not doing so with
any kind of informational advantage over your counterparty.
That, however, is less likely to be the case if you're
buying and selling stocks that most other market participants
aren't even paying attention to. Specifically, that's small
stocks, foreign stocks, and especially
small and foreignstocks.
Which brings me back to my story
The stock we discovered at
Global Gains
that's more quintupled in less than one year is a small
Chinese fertilizer company called
China Green Agriculture . In hindsight, at
less than five times earnings last October, it looked like a
clear winner.
The company's organic fertilizers were coming into favor
as the government encouraged farmers to increase food
production without a destructive environmental impact.
Furthermore, government efforts to aid rural farmers were
giving those farmers -- China Green's customers -- increased
purchasing power. Finally, there was a clear catalyst in the
new 40,000-metric-ton manufacturing facility that the company
planned to open with the capital it raised in a private
placement.
Yet the market either wasn't paying attention here, or
it was far too focused on the perceived risks of investing in
China Green Agriculture. Those included a very short track
record as a public company, an over-the-counter stock
listing, and no permanent CFO.
How, then, were we able to get comfortable with
recommending China Green's stock?
Elementary, my dear Watson
We traveled to Xi'an, China, last June, and
spent two days visiting with the company and touring its
R&D and production facilities. We talked extensively with
managers about their plans for the future and their perceived
market opportunities. And we got answers to every question we
had about the company.
This doesn't mean we walked away 100% confident. After
all, a company visit, while an important part of our research
process at
Global Gains, will never reveal the full story. But
the visit enabled us to get comfortable enough to recommend
that our members buy shares at less than five times earnings
within the context of a diversified portfolio.
The result speaks for itself. Not only is China Green
Agriculture up more than 400%, but it's outperformed
better-known China plays such as
China Unicom (NYSE: CHU) and
Wuxi Pharmatech (NYSE: WX) and bigger
agriculture plays such as
Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) and
Deere (NYSE: DE).
Your takeaway
Now, you may not have the resources to travel
to China to check up on all of the small, cheap, and
fast-growing companies there that you may be interested in
owning. But short of that, the lesson here is that you can
only take advantage of the inefficiencies that exist in the
stock market by doing an extraordinary level of due
diligence.
That means going through the filings with a fine-toothed
comb, checking up on a company's auditor to make sure it has
a good reputation, and doing extensive analysis of the
numbers to make sure they're good, but not too good to be
true.
Still, if you can make company visits a part of your
research process, I encourage you to do so. We travel to
China every year with
Motley Fool Global Gains
, and we've found that firsthand observation the best way
to identify both the most promising ideas and the potential
disasters.
In fact, we just returned from this summer's trip to
China and released our top picks from the trip -- including
one opportunity that's eerily similar to the one we
discovered at China Green this time last year. To get the
name of that stock and all of our picks,
click hereto join
Global Gainsfree for 30 days.
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this page
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This article was first published on June 24, 2009 as
"How We Tripled Our Money in a Year," but China Green kept
going up. It has been updated.
Tim Hanson
is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains
. He does not own shares of any company mentioned. China
Green Agriculture is aGlobal Gains
recommendation. The Fool's
disclosure policy
is Zen.
This article was originally published as
How We Made More Than 400% in a Yearon
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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