The
dollar is doomed. That was the case Brian Richards and I
made not too long ago, and though we thought we'd be the
targets of patriotic vitriol, it turns out that a lot of you
agreed with us. Color us flattered.
We also gave you some advice in that column on how to
protect yourself against a falling dollar: buying companies
that do big business in other currencies. This is a list that
includes multinationals such as
Costco (Nasdaq: COST) as well as foreign
corporations such as
Ituran (Nasdaq: ITRN).
Today, however, I'd like to take that advice one step
further to tell you my favorite way to get exposure to China
specifically -- a country and a currency that are both going
to strengthen over the long term at the expense of the United
States.
But first, the big picture
One of the people we keep in touch with at
Motley Fool Global Gains
is a guy named Matt Hayden, whose Hayden Communications
specializes in doing investor relations for small Chinese
companies.
We've discovered over time that a lot of the companies we
find interesting end up being Hayden clients and that Matt
also does a pretty good job of giving us the heads-up on
other companies we might be interested in. (Note to other IR
reps: That's because he doesn't bombard us with info on every
company he represents -- only carefully selected ones he
thinks we might like.)
Anyway, Matt's out on the road now giving a
presentation to skeptical American investors about why China
remains a good long-term opportunity. Here's the short-short
version ...
1. Although Chinese stocks look expensive,
they get cheaper if you're willing to look at smaller
companies.
Although Chinese stocks now trade on average
for nearly 30 times earnings, small companies in rural China
trade for just 18 times earnings. Given the long-term growth
opportunities in this part of the country, that number still
looks pretty good to me.
2. China has upside.
China's GDP is less than one-third that of the
United States, despite having four times the population.
It also has the lowest debt level (in terms of
both government and individual consumers) of any major world
economy. That means it has the resources and flexibility to
spur further growth -- and one day we should expect the
Chinese economy to be as large as or dramatically larger than
that of the United States.
3. There are near-term catalysts.
Economic growth in China is not coming to an
end. In the near term, we should see infrastructure building,
the further emergence of a cash-rich middle class, the
encouraged consolidation and privatization of state-owned
enterprises in order to make the economy more efficient, and
the expansion of social welfare programs to spur the spending
of some of those citizen savings.
Put these facts together, and you end up with a
long-term growth story selling for cheap -- one that also
should have some stability amid 2009's
economic turmoil.
And that's why analysts at Paribas, Blackrock, Carlyle,
and guys like Jim Rogers have been pounding the table for
China in their reports.
Here's what I
don'twant you to do
Now, a lot of folks get these arguments for
investing in China and think to themselves, "Yeah, I should
have some China." But then they think, " China's far away,
the government is bizarre, and those milk scandals and
whatnot have me sketched out about the quality of
management." So they either end up doing nothing, or they end
up buying an ETF such as the
iShares FTSE/Xinhua 25 Index .
If this is you, here's my advice:
Do not buy FXI.
There are lots of reasons we have this opinion at
Global Gains, and Todd Wenning does a nice job of
summarizing our thinking on this matter in an article called
"
The Wrong Way to Invest in China." If you
don't want to click over, the gist is that FXI is dominated
by moribund state-owned companies that (1) aren't in China's
highest-growth sectors and (2) don't really care about the
individual American investor.
In other words, buying FXI would have been akin to
buying the Dow 30 in the mid-1990s, when you actually wanted
to be making a bet on technology companies such as
EBIX (Nasdaq: EBIX),
Intuit (Nasdaq: INTU), and
Logitech (Nasdaq: LOGI). Sure, you would have
had some exposure, and a rising tide does lift all boats, but
the Dow would have been a daft and inefficient way to make
this investment.
Here's what I
dowant you to do
Of course, you're right to think that when you
invest in China, you should be diversified. After all, there
are enormous execution and other risks in the country that we
-- as American investors -- can't 100% solve for.
But rather than buy an ETF, I want you to buy a basket of
small, non-state-owned Chinese companies. As you might guess
from the data above, these companies are selling for much
cheaper than their NYSE-listed, state-owned counterparts are,
yet they have more upside and are being run more dynamically.
And what I mean by a "basket" is this: You should own
five to 10 small, non-SOE Chinese companies that, added
together, equal about one or two full positions in your
portfolio.
Go out and do it
The best way for American investors to play China for
the long term is to create your own diversified basket of
small-cap Chinese companies and make these stocks at least a
small part of your portfolio today. If you need help filling
out that basket, know that our
Global Gainsteam recently returned from a research
trip to China and released a special report detailing five
stocks you should buy today to build a China rural boom
basket.
To get that report,
click hereto join
Global Gainstoday.
Already subscribe toGlobal Gains
? Log in at the top of
this page
.
This article was originally published April 19, 2009.
It has been updated.
Tim Hanson
is the co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains
. He owns no shares of any company mentioned. Costco is
anInside Value
andStock Advisor
recommendation. EBIX is aRule Breakers
selection. Logitech is aMotley Fool Hidden Gems
pick. The Fool owns shares of Costco and Logitech. Make
the Fool's
disclosure policy
a part of your life.
This article was originally published as
Make These Stocks a Part of Your Portfolioon
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