Hundreds of hotshot money managers and analysts convened
at the Marriott Marquis in New York last fall to attend
JPMorgan's annual Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets Equity
Conference -- even as those emerging markets were seemingly
falling apart. I guarantee you that they weren't there
because they're scared of investing in emerging-markets
stocks.
But many others were, and I can't
necessarily blame them. It turns out, however, that if you
could stomach emerging markets'
volatility, you would have been richly rewarded.
Some very scary numbers
See, markets such as China, India, Indonesia, and
Brazil were all absolutely
crushedin 2008. China was underwater to the tune of
60%, Indonesia and India 50%, and Brazil 40%.
The rebound, however, has been just as sudden and just as
strong. Thus far in 2009, China is up 60%, Indonesia 78%,
India 68%, and Brazil 51%. As always when it comes to the
market, it paid to hang in there.
Take China, for example
If you'd been super savvy, however,
you would have done much more then hang in there. You may
have doubled down on depressed prices and supercharged your
returns. That, at least, was the takeaway of the first
session at that aforementioned closed-door conference --
courtesy of famed author, investor, and Princeton economist
Burton Malkiel. His presentation, titled "Investment
Strategies for the China Century," essentially said:
dangerously underexposed.
The recent decline in China stock valuations, together
with the magnitude and duration of China's potential
growth, makes today an "unprecedented investment
opportunity."
That last phrase was his words, not mine, though I did --
and continue to -- agree. And even though the Chinese stock
market has climbed back up, significant opportunities remain
in some of the country's most promising
niches. The question, of course, is how the individual
American investor can take advantage of this unprecedented
opportunity.
Your four options
If you're an American investor looking for maximum
returns and minimum hassle, then you have four ways to buy
China:
Xinhua China 25 .
Buy an actively managed mutual fund -- such as
Matthews China -- that is concentrated in
China.
Buy multinational corporations such as
3M (NYSE: MMM),
Deere (NYSE: DE), and
Nike (NYSE: NKE) that have made doing
business in China a significant part of their growth
strategy.
Buy individual Chinese stocks such as
New Oriental Education (NYSE: EDU) and
Mindray Medical (NYSE: MR) that trade on
U.S. exchanges.
Each one of these approaches comes with its own set of
pluses and minuses. Though the index fund is low-cost, for
example, it will condemn your portfolio to holding nothing
but enormous, bureaucratic, state-owned enterprises such as
Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH). The
actively managed fund might make more discerning stock picks,
but it's also expensive -- and Malkiel's research showed that
most actively managed China funds substantially underperform
the index.
Can you pick your own stocks?
That leaves two options: Picking your own
multinationals or picking your own Chinese stocks. In fact,
Malkiel recommends you do both.
Of course, you'll probably feel more comfortable
researching U.S. stocks that have a CEO who speaks your
language (literally), that sell products familiar to you, and
that release financials you're more likely to trust.
That's particularly so since Malkiel recommends that when
you're picking Chinese stocks, you avoid the big state-owned
enterprises and instead focus on small caps that are run by
passionate entrepreneurs, rather than the cautious (and
Communist) Chinese government. These stocks have more
potential and more upside, and they're more likely to have
been heretofore overlooked by institutional money -- so you
might get a screaming bargain.
To do so, however, you need to know a thing or two about
China. And at
Motley Fool Global Gains
, we'd like to help you with that.
Here's why
If you pursue both of these strategies, you mitigate
some of the volatility and maintain China's upside -- a
recipe for making good money in the long term. If you focus
solely on Chinese small caps, then you get a whole heck of a
lot of upside, but you will need to be able to withstand
serious volatility. Continued... |