"We're like children in a candy shop."
Who said it, and what was he talking about? I'll give you
a hint: It was a master investor, and he was talking about
buying a small group of stocks. But before I can reveal the
exact investor and the precise stocks, I need to set the
stage.
How much do you know about the global
economy?
You're probably aware that the United States is in
(though possibly emerging from) a recession. In fact,
according to a recent report from the National Bureau of
Economic Research, that recession started in December
2007.
Despite the recent (and somewhat questionable) rally,
American stocks over that period of time -- paced by enormous
declines in bellwethers such as
DuPont (NYSE: DD) and
AT&T (NYSE: T) -- are down 25% in
aggregate. In fact, just two stocks in the Dow Jones
–
IBM (NYSE: IBM) and
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) -- have posted a
positive return over that time frame.
Now, while the U.S. economy has been receding (i.e., seen
negative GDP growth), it looks like China has grown its GDP
9% or so, India 7% or so, and Brazil 5% or so. Given those
facts, and holding all other variables equal, we would expect
that the stock markets in these countries would have far
outperformed our own.
But while some have performed slightly better, that
generally has not been the case.
Here's how it breaks down
In fact, Brazil's stocks are down 5% since December
2007, India's 15%, and China's a whopping 38%. Again, that's
despite the healthy growth all three of these countries saw
in 2008.
There is more to an investment's performance than the GDP
growth rate of its home country. One must take into account
valuation (emerging-markets stocks were overvalued last year
relative to their U.S. peers), risk (emerging-markets stocks
will be more volatile than their U.S. peers), and future
outlook (emerging markets are expected to perform worse than
the U.S. going forward).
Wait a second ...
If you're paying attention, your eyes ground to a halt
upon reading the last bit of that last sentence. You may have
even set to writing a nasty email to me that questioned my
facts, sanity, and competence.
That's because economic growth in the world's emerging
markets, though it will slow in 2009,
isexpected to continue to outpace that of the United
States for many, many years to come. Of course, that
divergence between the performance of emerging-markets stocks
and their outlook for the future prompted famed Templeton
money manager Mark Mobius to tell Bloomberg that, when he and
his team were looking at emerging-markets stocks not too long
ago, "We're like children in a candy shop."
And that, dear Fools, was the reveal
See, emerging-markets stocks were oversold by investors
who -- for whatever reason -- need safety. Perhaps they were
professional investors seeing redemptions, individual
investors who can't stomach additional losses, or any other
kind of investor who doesn't want to worry these days about
currency risk, political upheaval, unpredictable tax rates,
or the myriad other concerns that keep global investors on
their toes. And while prices have moved up since then, there
are still significant pockets of opportunity.
Further, Mobius isn't the only institutional investor
who's salivating over the opportunities in emerging markets
today.
JPMorgan wrote in a recent note to clients
that "China is a must buy today."
Credit Suisse raised its Asia ex-Japan rating
to "overweight." Our
Motley Fool Global Gains
team is burning the midnight oil wading through the
financial statements of all of the attractively priced
stocks. Continued... |