According to data from TowerGroup, more than half of all
U.S. investors make fewer than five trades per year. At the
opposite end of the spectrum, just 0.3% identify themselves
as day traders who make more than three trades in a day.
You've probably heard that trading is hazardous to your
wealth, and you follow the Foolish principle of buy-and-hold
investing set forth by Buffett, Lynch, et al. Good for you --
you're sticking to your guns, keeping taxes and commissions
low, and trying to beat the market.
But ...
When you're buying stocks both infrequently
and with the intent to hold them for extended periods of
time, you probably sweat the buy and sell decisions in a big
way.
That's why we can't underscore enough the
importance of keeping a watch list. Every investor needs a
watch list -- and not just a few tickers scribbled on an
envelope. We're talking about an unwieldy, expansive, and
possibly color-coded endeavor.
Make every purchase count
At our
Motley Fool Hidden Gems
small-cap service, we add companies to our watch list
every month in addition to making two formal recommendations.
For the companies that go on the watch list, we either want a
better price, or we want to see some sort of change in the
business.
From there, a company may become a recommendation if the
business improves, or if it sees a sudden and substantial
drop in share price.
Enough introduction
Hornbeck Offshore Services went on my (Tim's)
watch list in May 2006 after I listened to a presentation in
New Orleans by Todd Hornbeck, the company's CEO.
Here was a company making money hand over fist. As the
operator of the most technologically advanced fleet of
offshore supply vessels (OSVs) for large energy companies,
the company possessed an important competitive advantage and
was well positioned to benefit from a long-term rise in
energy prices. Finally, the CEO owned nearly 2% of shares and
had his name on the door.
The stock only made it to the watch list, though, because
I was worried about price.
A bit more background
Hornbeck was then trading for about 20 times
earnings, and its shares had more than tripled following its
2004 IPO. Even without crunching the numbers, it was clear
that the stock had gotten ahead of itself.
After all, energy is a cyclical industry, and 2006 was a
boom year. What's more, Hornbeck was seeing even greater
demand for its ships in the Gulf of Mexico because of damage
wrought by Hurricane Katrina. The stock was priced as if this
operating environment would continue indefinitely.
It didn't
Fast-forward to Jan. 11, 2007. Hornbeck stock
dropped 22%
in a dayafter the company substantially lowered
fourth-quarter guidance and announced that it could drop its
2007 guidance by as much as 20%.
Of course, now our interest was piqued. Hornbeck came off
the watch list and onto the whiteboard for more research.
But we didn't like what we found.
Operating OSVs is an extremely capital-intensive business.
As the old saying goes, "The two happiest days of a boat
owner's life are the day he buys the boat and the day he
sells it." And although Hornbeck was a very profitable
company, it did not spin out a lot of free cash flow. And
with dayrates dropping, insurance and maintenance costs
rising, and some volatility in the energy sector, it wasn't
clear that Hornbeck (1) wouldn't fall any further or (2)
would see sufficient returns to send the stock back up. Continued... |