Stop me if you've heard this one. But the
onestock you
mustbuy is ... the next
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL),
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN),
eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), and
Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU), all rolled into
one.
That's a pitch I'm sure you've heard some semblance of at
cocktail parties, golf outings, weddings, and, of course, on
the Internet.
And it's a pretty appealing pitch. After all, Apple,
Amazon, eBay, and Baidu are some of the stock market's great
success stories. These companies have earned early investors
mind-boggling returns over short and long periods of
time.
The secrets of success
So the question is: Does that
onestock you
mustbuy exist? Of course it does. But can you find
it? That's a different matter.
Here, however, is a litmus test to gauge every stock tip
you come across. Simply ask: Does this company bear any
resemblance at all to Apple, Amazon, eBay, or Baidu
beforethey were big names?
That's not to say that
onestock will be a tech superstar. Instead, Apple,
Amazon, eBay, and Baidu all share a set of remarkable traits
that characterized them when their amazing runs began. All
were:
If the next stock pitched to you lacks these traits,
you're probably better off passing.
A case study
Consider, for example, the cases of
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and
Altera (Nasdaq: ALTR) -- two tech
plays touted to me at cocktail parties, golf
outings, weddings, and of course, on the Internet.
Are they small? No. AMD and Altera are $3
billion and $6 billion companies,
respectively.
Are they led by dedicated founders? No. Both Derrick Meyer
and John Daane came from other companies. Neither owns a
significant percentage of his company's shares.
Are they fiscally conservative? Yes and no. While Altera
has a strong balance sheet and business that generates
healthy cash flow, AMD -- due to the capital intensive nature
of its business and competition with
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) -- swung to an operating
loss in 2007 and 2008, and the company continues to spend
significantly on capital expenditures.
Do they have wide market opportunities? It gets a little
cloudy here. While both companies have opportunities to grab
greater market share, they both operate in extremely
competitive industries. Whatever gains they make will be
hard-fought and may not last. Continued... |