Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Tim Hanson :: Townhall.com Columnist
The One Stock You Must Buy
by Tim Hanson
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Stop me if you've heard this one. But the onestock you mustbuy is ... the next Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), and Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU), all rolled into one.

That's a pitch I'm sure you've heard some semblance of at cocktail parties, golf outings, weddings, and, of course, on the Internet.

And it's a pretty appealing pitch. After all, Apple, Amazon, eBay, and Baidu are some of the stock market's great success stories. These companies have earned early investors mind-boggling returns over short and long periods of time.

The secrets of success
So the question is: Does that onestock you mustbuy exist? Of course it does. But can you find it? That's a different matter.

Here, however, is a litmus test to gauge every stock tip you come across. Simply ask: Does this company bear any resemblance at all to Apple, Amazon, eBay, or Baidu beforethey were big names?

That's not to say that onestock will be a tech superstar. Instead, Apple, Amazon, eBay, and Baidu all share a set of remarkable traits that characterized them when their amazing runs began. All were:

If the next stock pitched to you lacks these traits, you're probably better off passing.

A case study
Consider, for example, the cases of Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) and Altera (Nasdaq: ALTR) -- two tech plays touted to me at cocktail parties, golf outings, weddings, and of course, on the Internet.

Are they small? No. AMD and Altera are $3 billion and $6 billion companies, respectively.

Are they led by dedicated founders? No. Both Derrick Meyer and John Daane came from other companies. Neither owns a significant percentage of his company's shares.

Are they fiscally conservative? Yes and no. While Altera has a strong balance sheet and business that generates healthy cash flow, AMD -- due to the capital intensive nature of its business and competition with Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) -- swung to an operating loss in 2007 and 2008, and the company continues to spend significantly on capital expenditures.

Do they have wide market opportunities? It gets a little cloudy here. While both companies have opportunities to grab greater market share, they both operate in extremely competitive industries. Whatever gains they make will be hard-fought and may not last. Continued...

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About The Author

Tim Hanson is an editor/analyst at The Motley Fool.

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