Back at the beginning of 2008, one segment of the market
was starting to look pretty darn appealing: small banks.
Indeed, more than 20 small banks were trading for less than
two times book value in April, while posting
trailing-12-month returns on equity north of 15%. That
notable list included
Corus Bankshares (Nasdaq: CORS) and
FirstFed Financial (NYSE: FED).
But I hope you didn't invest.
Why small and cheap is good
Both of those names -- and many more like them
-- are down more than 90% since then. Sure,
all investors should seek out cheap small caps
with good operating metrics; stocks like these can provide
outsized returns to long-term investors, to the tune of
more than five percentage points
per year. But the recent experience of small-cap
banks imparts an important lesson about the difference
between
trailingmetrics and
futureoutlooks.
As you've probably heard on the news, the entire financial
sector has been sledgehammered by tightening liquidity,
thanks to a subprime mortgage writedown bonanza. In the asset
management sector alone, previous outperformers such as
Legg Mason (NYSE: LM),
Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), and
T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW) have been hit by
increasing redemptions and declining returns (though that
could be beginning to turn).
Excuse me while I ... state the obvious
That industry carnage is the reason why
small-cap banks looked cheap earlier this year, and why
they've gotten "cheaper" today. Still, I'm not buying. Here's
why:
Early is wrong
Now, if you also like cheap stocks (and
tallyho if you do), you're ready to tell me to stop looking a
gift horse in the mouth, to take cheap when I can get it, and
to
get ready to buymore if the banks
I should be buyingtoday fall further.
That's fine and dandy in theory, but as master money
manager Ron Muhlenkamp reminded me when I shared these same
thoughts with him last month, "If you're two years early,
you're one and a half years wrong."
There's good news, though: Recent market volatility means
that there
arecheap small caps with good operating metrics
outsidethe banking industry. Our
Motley Fool Hidden Gems
small-cap investing team has our eye on a good number of
them.
To see the stocks we're recommending today,
click hereto join
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members. Continued... |