Rob Gifford's
China Roadis a must-read for anyone -- investor or
otherwise -- looking for a better understanding of our
world's emerging economic superpower. And while myriad
investment ideas dot the book, the most significant can be
divined from this passage:
So much in China now depends on oil. Its importance
resonates silently down through every stratum of society.
The Communist Party must keep the economy growing;
otherwise the unemployed and underemployed could cause
social unrest. To keep the economy growing, the Party must
build new factories and create new jobs. (Some economists
have calculated that 24 million new jobs must be created
every year in order to do this.) To fuel the factories and
the construction, China must have more oil. And to achieve
that goal it is searching for oil within its own borders
and going out into the world, making deals in Africa, and
Central Asia, and Southeast Asia.
And when Gifford asks a former oil worker if China has
enough oil, the worker responds cryptically, "Not yet."
Some startling statistics
The fact is, China needs -- and is going to
need --
a lotof oil. Indeed, according to
BP 's
Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, though
global oil consumption was down 0.6% in 2008, oil consumption
in China increased 3.3% to nearly 8 million barrels per day.
And while that already accounts for nearly 10% of
global oil consumption, China looks like it has a long way to
go. That's because while it has
four times
the populationof the United States, it today
consumes
less than half the amount of oil. Should China
someday consume the same amount of oil per capita as the
United States, we are going to see skyrocketing prices and a
significant global supply squeeze.
Unlike the U.S., China has anticipated this
This is why China is engaged in an aggressive global
grab for natural resources. These efforts include greatly
increased investment in resource-rich Latin America,
including a rumored bid by China National Petroleum to
acquire the Argentinean operations of
Repsol YPF . It also includes significant
asset acquisitions in Africa, such as
Marathon Oil 's recent $1.3 billion deal with
CNOOC and
Sinopec , as well as acquisitions in
Singapore and Malaysia.
It's worth noting here that China National, CNOOC, and
Sinopec are all state-owned companies in China, which means
the open markets may never see the fruits of their
investment. And while we here in the United States were
threatening to tax the likes of
EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG),
XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO), and
Anadarko (NYSE: APC) to high heaven while
energy prices were high, CNOOC has some of the lowest all-in
costs in the industry thanks to a declining production tax.
What this means for investors
There are two obvious takeaways here. The
first is that if you're willing to stomach some volatility,
going long on oil and related energy companies for the long
term at current prices is probably a pretty good play.
(That's particularly true if you believe alternative energy
technologies will be slow to commercialize.) If you fret some
of the volatility associated with these companies, you can
also look at energy services names such as
Core Labs (NYSE: CLB),
CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV), and
Keppel .
The second is that if any emerging market will suffer from
a lack of energy supplies, it won't be China. When you add to
that fact China's infrastructure advantages over other
emerging markets, its relatively strong balance sheet,
immense human resources, and growing reputation as a
financial center, you get what looks to be the world's most
promising emerging market.
That is a bold, but reasonable claim
That potential is one of the reasons our
Motley Fool Global Gains
service has a number of recommendations for you to go
long energy and long China. If you're interested in knowing
what those are,
click hereto join
Global Gainsfree for 30 days.
Already subscribe toGlobal Gains
? Log in at the top of
this page
.
This article was first published June 26, 2009. It has
been updated.
Tim Hanson
is co-advisor ofMotley Fool Global Gains.
He survived 16 hours on a plane from China despite the
fact that the best movie offered wasConfessions of a
Shopaholic
(seriously, United?). He does not own shares of any
company mentioned. CNOOC and Veritas areMotley Fool
Global Gains
recommendations. The Motley Fool owns shares of XTO
Energy. The Fool's
disclosure policy
laughs in the face of jet lag.
This article was originally published as
Why You Should Buy Oilon
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
|