This article's swaggering headline smacks of exaggeration
-- but it's true.
How it happened
Picture it: New Jersey, 1995. Although not then a
Motley Fool employee, I was, perhaps like you, an avid reader
of Fool.com. Founding Fools David and Tom Gardner
occasionally recommended stocks, and one of their
recommendations was an online service provider, America
Online.
I was still quite new to investing, and I didn't know
enough to do much of my own research. But I did have one
thing going for me: I was an AOL customer. I used the service
every day, and I liked what I saw of its user-friendliness,
utility, and potential. So I bought. I snapped up $3,000
worth of shares and hung on.
Over the next several years, the
stock went up and down, sometimes significantly
--Â but I held on. It mostly went up, and it split
and split. I remember checking my portfolio regularly --
several times a day! -- to see how rich I was becoming. Near
the stock's peak, I had a 70-bagger! My $3,000 investment had
turned into $210,000. If it doubled in value only twice more,
I'd be (almost) a millionaire! All from a measly $3,000
investment.
Did I sell shares along the ride up? No. (Some of us don't
know
when to cut our losses.) Did I sell at least
somenear the top, when my mom told me to? Nope.
(That strange thudding sound you hear is me banging my head
on my desk. The silence is my mom, biting her tongue.) I held
on.
AOL merged with
Time Warner in 2001, and for years after
that, the stock struggled. I remember when shares were priced
in the $70s (that would be north of $200 now, after a recent
1-for-3 reverse stock split), but it's a fuzzy memory. They
spent years below $20 ($60, split-adjusted) until relatively
recently, and even more recently drifted much lower. I did
sell a big chunk of my shares a few years ago, when I needed
money for a down payment on my house. And I finally got smart
-- I sold more shares to diversify into other stocks instead
of holding a big chunk of my net worth in a company in which
I no longer had faith.
I continue to hold a few shares, though, and despite my
inclination to curse my stupidity for not selling earlier,
I'm still sitting on a handsome profit, even at current
levels. My cost basis is ridiculously low, and this has
stillbeen one of my best investments ever. I
shouldn't complain.
How you can do it
If any part of this story appeals to you, know that you
have a chance to make it yours -- perhaps with a happier
ending -- if you make a few decisions differently. (You might
end up as an
accidental billionaire!)
Buy what you know
First, pay attention to products and services you know,
use, and love -- especially if you see more and more people
using them. There may be a great stock behind them, and
knowing their products or services will go a long way toward
understanding the business. Plenty of well-known companies
have done phenomenally well over the past decade or two --
let's look at a few.
Have you been getting a lot of prescriptions filled
lately? Well,
CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS) shares have
increased in value about seven-fold over the past 20 years.
Cell phone companies have done well, too -- with
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) shares averaging 14% annual
growth since it went public 14 years ago. Are those some
Nike (NYSE: NKE) sneakers on your feet?
Despite the market swoon, Nike shares have averaged more than
11% growth per year over the past decade, trouncing the
market's return. Love your desktop computer or your trusty
printer?
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) shares have
averaged 14% growth over the past 20 years. These companies
have performed rather well, right under our noses.
Beware what you don't
Along those same lines, be wary of what you don't
understand. If you don't understand how a business makes
money, you probably won't be able to tell when business is
going badly. Biotechnology companies present
a good example, as do new-technology companies.
Think of
Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) -- if you're invested in
it, do you have a good grasp of its multiple treatment
modalities -- large-molecule proteins, small molecules and
antibodies -- among other things? If you're invested in
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), do you have a solid
handle on the database software industry?
Hang on for the ride
If you buy into a company hoping that it will be a
multibagger for you, buy to hold as long as you continue to
understand the business, strategy, and leadership. If you
have faith in the company's future, it's often best to just
hang on, despite inevitable hiccups. If you still have
long-term confidence, don't let naysayers in the media get
you out of a stock because of short-term concerns.
Consider the home-building specialist,
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). For some of its
earliest investors, it's a 19-bagger over the past 20 years.
For those who've hung on for just the past decade, through
some down years and the market's recent upheaval, it has
still averaged a 16% annual gain, far surpassing the S&P
500. So -- not bad, eh?
Sell if things get too crazy
Consider selling some of your shares if they hit
levels you can't justify or if the company is facing some
long-term problems. That was my main mistake -- irrationally
and greedily hoping to get even richer. If a stock is trading
for far more than you know it's worth, and you still hang on,
you're no longer investing -- you're speculating, and at
great risk. Continued... |