I've been a stupid and reckless investor in the past:
owning too many stocks, not knowing enough about them,
trading in and out of them too impatiently, and not keeping
up with my holdings. It was a dumb strategy, and I paid the
price -- poor performance.
I've learned a lot since then. My portfolio is full of
companies I'm rather familiar with, and I understand them
much better than my holdings of yore. I'm also aiming to hang
on to them for a long time, unless some specific change in
their fundamental fortunes makes me lose confidence in them.
I expect that this approach will serve me well.
After all, these blue chips may be big, but they can still
grow. Just look at how some of them have done in the past 20
years:
Stock
20-Year Total Return
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
1,739%
Costco (Nasdaq: COST)
446%
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD)
900%
Not so bad, huh? If this group of holdings merely doubles
every decade from now on, I'll have eight times its value in
30 years. $125,000 could become $1 million. And if my
portfolio triples each decade -- admittedly more of a
pipe-dream scenario -- its value will grow
27-fold.
For many investors, this is enough. Through a broad-market
index fund, large-cap mutual fund, or blue chips you've
carefully selected on your own, you can meet or beat the
market over the long haul, outperforming most Americans.
Holding out for blowouts
Still, I confess that I yearn for much more
than doubling every decade. Perhaps this is because I've
actually
experienced much more. I invested in America Online more
than a decade ago, and watched my investment grow
70-fold. Of course, I didn't sell near the peak; now
those shares, merged with
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), aren't even close to
their former worth.
While I'm focusing my portfolio these days on proven
winners with strong track records and defensible competitive
positions, I'm also leaving some room for potential blowout
results, by devoting a small portion of my portfolio to some
aggressive investments.
How to find 'em early
Quite obviously, one secret to achieving
blowout results lies in finding great companies early.
Back in the mid-'90s, you might have noticed America
Online's large and growing base of users. In 1996, it had
around 5 million subscribers and a market cap of $5 billion;
by 1998, subscribers had roughly tripled, while its market
cap increased fivefold. The company had a competitive
advantage because of its high "switching costs" -- once
subscribers had shared their email addresses with lots of
friends, they were not likely to change providers or
addresses too quickly. Based on all these factors, you might
have decided that the company was worth at least a small
investment, in case it became wildly successful. Continued... |