We humans just mess everything up, don't we? We put out
the trash on the wrong night. We go through half our lives
thinking that segue is pronounced
seeg. We drive across town to save $50 on a TV set,
but then put off contributing to a Roth IRA for a few years
and
lose out on tens of thousands of retirement dollars.
Here's one more example: We often look at risk
incorrectly. I read recently in
The New York Timesabout an upcoming report in the
Journal of Consumer Researchwhich found investors
reacting irrationally to a stock's "run length." Investors
were shown two stocks that offered the same monthly and
annual returns, but one stock rose one day and fell the next,
while the other rose steadily every day during the first half
of each month and then gave its gains back by the end of the
month. So the only difference was how long each would rise
before falling, and vice versa. Yet investors perceived the
stock with the shorter run length (the former) as safer --
when it wasn't.
We often behave similarly with
beta-- the term for a stock's volatility that reflects
how much it moves in relation to the overall market. So a
stock that tends to gain 10% when the market does would have
a 1.0 beta, while a stock that tends to gain 15% when the
market gains 10% would have a 1.5 beta. Investors sometimes
think that
a low beta is good, but really, if you're buying a stock
and aiming to hold on for years, how much does it really
matter whether its graph features deep and high spikes, or
small zigzags?
What really mattersis simply how it grows: where the
graph begins and ends, what you pay for the stock and what
you get for it when you sell.
For instance, notice how
the betason these
stocks don't really match up with their long-term
returns:
Company
Beta*
10-Year Avg. Annual Return
Terex (NYSE: TEX)
2.69
6%
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT)
1.87
11%
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP)
1.51
15%
Corning (NYSE: GLW)
1.27Â
(3%)
3M (NYSE: MMM)
0.76
8%
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