This article's swaggering headline smacks of exaggeration
-- but it's true.
How it happened
Picture it: New Jersey, 1995. Although not then a
Motley Fool employee, I was, perhaps like you, an avid reader
of Fool.com. Founding Fools David and Tom Gardner
occasionally recommended stocks, and one of their
recommendations was an online service provider, America
Online.
I was still quite new to investing, and I didn't know
enough to do much of my own research. But I did have one
thing going for me: I was an AOL customer. I used the service
every day, and I liked what I saw of its user-friendliness,
utility, and potential. So I bought. I snapped up $3,000
worth of shares and hung on.
Over the next several years, the
stock went up and down, sometimes significantly
--Â but I held on. It mostly went up, and it split
and split. I remember checking my portfolio regularly --
several times a day! -- to see how rich I was becoming. Near
the stock's peak, I had a 70-bagger! My $3,000 investment had
turned into $210,000. If it doubled in value only twice more,
I'd be (almost) a millionaire! All from a measly $3,000
investment.
Did I sell shares along the ride up? No. (Some of us don't
know
when to cut our losses.) Did I sell at least
somenear the top, when my mom told me to? Nope.
(That strange thudding sound you hear is me banging my head
on my desk. The silence is my mom, biting her tongue.) I held
on.
AOL merged with
Time Warner in 2001, and for years after
that, the stock struggled. I remember when shares were priced
in the $70s (that would be north of $200 now, after a recent
1-for-3 reverse stock split), but it's a fuzzy memory. They
spent years below $20 ($60, split-adjusted) until relatively
recently, and even more recently they drifted much lower. I
did sell a big chunk of my shares a few years ago, when I
needed money for a down payment on my house. And I finally
got smart -- I sold more shares to diversify into other
stocks instead of holding a big chunk of my net worth in a
company in which I no longer had faith.
I continue to hold a few shares, though, and despite my
inclination to curse my stupidity for not selling earlier,
I'm still sitting on a handsome profit, even at current
levels. My cost basis is ridiculously low, and this has
stillbeen one of my best investments ever. I
shouldn't complain.
How you can do it
If any part of this story appeals to you, you have a
chance to make it yours -- perhaps with a happier ending --
if you make a few decisions differently. (You might end up as
an
accidental billionaire!)
Buy what you know
First, pay attention to products and services you know,
use, and love -- especially if you see more and more people
using them. There may be a great stock behind them, and
knowing their products or services will go a long way toward
understanding the business. Plenty of well-known companies
have done phenomenally well over the past decade or two --
let's look at a few.
Have you taken any online courses with
Apollo Group 's (Nasdaq: APOL) University of
Phoenix? Do you fill your prescriptions at
CVS Caremark's (NYSE: CVS)
CVS stores ? Do you regularly quaff
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) Frappucinos? Do you
have a
Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry
in your pocket?
Apollo stock has averaged 22.8% annual growth over the
past decade, while CVS stock averaged 6.2%, which still
handily trounces the market. Starbucks stock has averaged
more than 12% annually over the past decade, while Research
In Motion has averaged more than 30%! (The S&P 500 during
the period averaged an annual loss of less than 1%.) These
companies have performed rather well, right under our
noses.
Beware what you don't
Along those same lines, be wary of what you don't
understand. If you don't understand how a business makes
money, you probably won't be able to tell when business is
going badly.
Biotechnology companies present
a good example, as do new-technology companies.
Think of
EMC (NYSE: EMC) -- if you're invested in it,
do you have a good grasp of electronic storage technology,
and of the strengths and weaknesses of various
disaster-recovery services? Similarly, financial institutions
can be tricky. If you're not comfortable with your grasp of
Capital One Financial 's (NYSE: COF)
financial condition and risks, with its return on assets and
its provisions for loan losses, consider steering clear.
Hang on for the ride
If you buy into a company hoping that it will be a
multibagger for you, buy to hold as long as you continue to
understand the business, strategy, and leadership. If you
have faith in the company's future, it's often best to just
hang on, despite any inevitable hiccups. If you still have
long-term confidence, don't let naysayers in the media get
you out of a stock because of short-term concerns.
Consider
Ford (NYSE: F). It earned solid returns for
many early investors, and some still have high expectations
for the company's future performance, but it has delivered a
net loss to investors over the past decade. Continued... |