There are many mistakes investors make when we look at
stock prices. For starters, there's the mistake of thinking
that a low price is a good thing -- and by low, I mean a few
dollars. Or even $20, when compared with a $50 alternative.
For example, as I type this,
Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares are below $5 per
share, and shares of
E-Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC) are trading
under $2.
If you're thinking those are bargain levels simply because
you can count to the share price on the fingers of one hand,
think again. Remember that you really need to have two prices
in mind when you buy a stock -- its current price, and its
intrinsic or fair value: what you think it's really worth. A
stock may be trading at $1 per share, but it may well be
worth just half of that. If so, it's more likely to head
south over time than to surge.
Lofty bargains
Meanwhile, some stocks sport seemingly steep prices,
but might be bargains. Insurance operation
Fairfax Financial (NYSE: FFH), for example,
was recently trading around $365 per share, and had earned a
four-star ratingfrom our
Motley Fool CAPSinvestor community, suggesting that many
expect good things from it. Similarly,
CME Group (NYSE: CME), trading around $300,
was rated four stars.
But here's perhaps the best example: Rated five stars is
Warren Buffett's company,
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE:
BRK-B). Its class-A shares closed Friday at over $100,000 per
share. Yet many consider it to be significantly undervalued
and think the shares are really worth even more than
that.
When looking at a share price, also be sure to look at the
company's market capitalization, which is the share price
multiplied by the number of shares. That tells you the total
value that investors are placing on the company right now and
is much more meaningful than its share price. (If you
don’t know how many
shares a company has, the price of each is kind of
meaningless.) Often, you'll find that companies with higher
share prices actually have lower market caps, because they
have fewer shares outstanding. So don't get confused!
Don't focus on quantity
In addition, some people get excited about low-priced
stocks because they can buy a lot of them with relatively few
dollars. If you have $5,000, you can't even afford two
class-B shares of Berkshire Hathaway, but you can get more
than 1,000 shares of Citigroup. Unsophisticated investors
will assume that 1,000 shares is better than one, but they
need to ask themselves which stock is likely to go up more,
and how safe or risky each stock is, among other things.
This kind of thinking is what makes lots of people lose
lots of money on
penny stocks-- they get excited at the prospect of owning
10,000 shares of a $0.05 stock (for just $500), not realizing
that it's more likely to fall to $0.01 than to rise to $3.
Remember that if you buy 10 shares of a $500 stock and 1,000
shares of a $5 stock and they both go up by 10%, the share
price makes no difference: You'll still be up the same $500
on each position.
Splitting shares
Another way to end up with 1,000 shares is to buy into
a healthy, growing company that
splits its
shares. (Not all companies split their shares, though --
that's why Berkshire's shares are priced so high.) A
two-for-one split will give you twice as many shares as you
currently own, at half the price. The net change in their
value? Nada. Splits aren't really such a big deal -- unless
you like the idea of owning lots of (lower-priced)
shares.
But here's another split-related caution: Sometimes a
stock you're following can suddenly appear to surge in value,
by doing a
reversesplit. A reverse split leaves you with fewer
shares, but at a higher price. When a company's stock price
falls to embarrassing levels, it may do a reverse split. It
may also do one in order to meet listing requirements for the
stock exchange where it trades.
AIG (NYSE: AIG) recently did a
reverse split, with some amazing results.
What to do
So, never put too much stock in a company's share price
without getting more context. Focus on the stock's
valueÂ-- how
undervaluedyou think it might be and how well it might
serve you.
This article was originally published as
Don't Be Fooled by Low Share Priceson
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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