Thursday, September 24, 2009
Selena Maranjian :: Townhall.com Columnist
Don't Be Fooled by Low Share Prices
by Selena Maranjian
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There are many mistakes investors make when we look at stock prices. For starters, there's the mistake of thinking that a low price is a good thing -- and by low, I mean a few dollars. Or even $20, when compared with a $50 alternative. For example, as I type this, Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares are below $5 per share, and shares of E-Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC) are trading under $2.

If you're thinking those are bargain levels simply because you can count to the share price on the fingers of one hand, think again. Remember that you really need to have two prices in mind when you buy a stock -- its current price, and its intrinsic or fair value: what you think it's really worth. A stock may be trading at $1 per share, but it may well be worth just half of that. If so, it's more likely to head south over time than to surge.

Lofty bargains
Meanwhile, some stocks sport seemingly steep prices, but might be bargains. Insurance operation Fairfax Financial (NYSE: FFH), for example, was recently trading around $365 per share, and had earned a four-star ratingfrom our Motley Fool CAPSinvestor community, suggesting that many expect good things from it. Similarly, CME Group (NYSE: CME), trading around $300, was rated four stars.

But here's perhaps the best example: Rated five stars is Warren Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B). Its class-A shares closed Friday at over $100,000 per share. Yet many consider it to be significantly undervalued and think the shares are really worth even more than that.

When looking at a share price, also be sure to look at the company's market capitalization, which is the share price multiplied by the number of shares. That tells you the total value that investors are placing on the company right now and is much more meaningful than its share price. (If you don’t know how many shares a company has, the price of each is kind of meaningless.) Often, you'll find that companies with higher share prices actually have lower market caps, because they have fewer shares outstanding. So don't get confused!

Don't focus on quantity
In addition, some people get excited about low-priced stocks because they can buy a lot of them with relatively few dollars. If you have $5,000, you can't even afford two class-B shares of Berkshire Hathaway, but you can get more than 1,000 shares of Citigroup. Unsophisticated investors will assume that 1,000 shares is better than one, but they need to ask themselves which stock is likely to go up more, and how safe or risky each stock is, among other things.

This kind of thinking is what makes lots of people lose lots of money on penny stocks-- they get excited at the prospect of owning 10,000 shares of a $0.05 stock (for just $500), not realizing that it's more likely to fall to $0.01 than to rise to $3. Remember that if you buy 10 shares of a $500 stock and 1,000 shares of a $5 stock and they both go up by 10%, the share price makes no difference: You'll still be up the same $500 on each position.

Splitting shares
Another way to end up with 1,000 shares is to buy into a healthy, growing company that splits its shares. (Not all companies split their shares, though -- that's why Berkshire's shares are priced so high.) A two-for-one split will give you twice as many shares as you currently own, at half the price. The net change in their value? Nada. Splits aren't really such a big deal -- unless you like the idea of owning lots of (lower-priced) shares.

But here's another split-related caution: Sometimes a stock you're following can suddenly appear to surge in value, by doing a reversesplit. A reverse split leaves you with fewer shares, but at a higher price. When a company's stock price falls to embarrassing levels, it may do a reverse split. It may also do one in order to meet listing requirements for the stock exchange where it trades. AIG (NYSE: AIG) recently did a reverse split, with some amazing results.

What to do
So, never put too much stock in a company's share price without getting more context. Focus on the stock's value­-- how undervaluedyou think it might be and how well it might serve you.

This article was originally published as Don't Be Fooled by Low Share Priceson Fool.com

Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved.

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About The Author

Selena Maranjian prepares the Fool's syndicated newspaper column, writes articles for Fool.com, has coordinated the Fool's annual Foolanthropy charity drive, and has written a number of Fool books, among other things.

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