The market's now full of exciting dividend yields. Among
dividend-paying companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges,
more than 1,300 -- over 40% of the total -- recently sported
yields greater than 5%.
But you often
can't trustunusually high yields. In a market like this,
littered with dividend reductions galore (and
more dividend cuts on the way), it can sometimes be hard
to predict whether a company's future earnings will support
future dividend payments. And if they won't, well, those high
dividends are likely to end up on the cutting-room floor.
Even the long-term dividend payers aren't immune.
Wells Fargo ,
Dow Chemical ,
Motorola ,
General Electric (NYSE: GE), and
International Paper have all cut their
dividends lately -- even though all of them have long been
viewed as solid blue chips.
Don't despair, though. There are still ways to achieve
high dividend yields relatively safely.
Dividends rising
Over time, stock prices increase; ideally, so do
dividend payouts. But your cost basis doesn't change, no
matter what else happens with the stock. Even if a company is
paying out 3% compared to today's stock price, it's paying
out far more, relatively speaking, to those who bought the
stock for much less, many years ago.
McDonald's , for example, was recently paying
out $2 a year per share in dividends. That's a 3.6% yield if
you buy now, when the price is around $55. But I bought it
nearly three years ago, when the price was around $37. That
gives me a 5.5% yield on my cost.
If McDonald's increases its dividend by 12% per year on
average, in 12 years it would be paying out nearly $8 per
share, giving me a 22% yield. In just 15 years, my effective
yield would be a whopping 30%! And this is all separate from
whether the stock itself appreciates.
So, while the current yield on a stock might be only 2% or
3%, that's for people buying the stock right now. Those who
bought it long ago at lower prices, and now get that same
dividend, enjoy a higher
effectiveyield. And over time, that yield can grow
very high indeed.
Why it matters
Healthy, growing companies have more going for them
than dividend increases. Over the long term, their share
prices also tend to rise.
McDonald's, for example, has averaged 20% growth over the
past five years, and its dividend has grown by an average of
roughly 30% over the past five years -- even factoring in the
last terrible market year.
That combination of strong stock growth and reinvested,
growing dividends has made companies like
Altria the best-performing stocks of the last
half-century, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.
That's
the power of dividend growth.
While growing dividends and healthy, effective yields
boost portfolios in any market, they're especially helpful in
markets like this one, because solid dividend payers keep
paying you no matter what the economy is doing.
Remember, though, that hard times can also make it
challenging for some companies to keep paying their
dividends. That's why it's always critical to choose firms
that are particularly healthy and stand little chance of
reducing or eliminating their dividend. (And it's also why
some people are saying that
now is the right time to load up on dividends.)
How to find healthy companies
To zero in on stable companies with growing dividends,
look for relatively little debt and relatively robust cash
piles (via the balance sheet). Also keep, an eye out for
growing revenue and income, and ideally, rising profit
margins. Be wary when accounts receivable or inventories are
growing faster than sales.
I used those general guidelines to screen for companies
with dividend yields of 2.5% or more, returns on equity of
15% or more, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20 or
less:
Company
Recent Dividend Yield
5-Year Dividend Growth
Return on equity (ROE)
P/E
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)
3.1%
12%
22%
13
Nokia (NYSE: NOK)
3.3%
17%
28%
11
3M (NYSE: MMM)
2.7%
8%
26%
19
Automatic Data Processing (NYSE:
ADP)
3.3%
19% Continued... |