Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Robert Steyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Putting the Brakes on Wynn's Earnings
by Robert Steyer
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Wynn Resorts (Nasdaq: WYNN) delivered a third-quarter financial report Tuesday that should remind investors to look beyond the headlines and even Wall Street's forecasts.

Wynn's earnings per share of $0.33, excluding one-time items, easily beat the Wall Street consensus of $0.15, while its revenue of $773.1 million topped the average estimate by $30 million and passed the year-ago quarter's $769.2 million.

So why was the stock getting pounded Tuesday -- off nearly 9% in midday trading? Let's count the ways.

Year-over-year revenue comparisons don't give a clear picture because 2009's third quarter includes revenue from Wynn Encore in Las Vegas, which opened in late December 2008, while the year-ago period doesn't. On a GAAPbasis, Wynn earned $0.28 per share during the July-September quarter, compared with $0.49 for the year-ago period. With that in mind, things don't look so great anymore, at least not on the surface.

Macau revenue falls
Wynn's stock rose sharplyin the third quarter, prompted in part by reports that the Chinese government had eased travel restrictions and that aggregate gambling revenue for Macau casinos had climbed during this period.

However, Wynn reported that third-quarter revenue from Macau dropped to $448.5 million, from $474.8 million for the year-ago period. That may seem strange, because its hotel occupancy rate rose three percentage points to 89.2% and the ultra-important revenue per available room rose slightly to $235 from $234. But when revenue falls, no one's paying attention to the occupancy rate.

Looking forward, Wynn reaffirmed that it expects to open its Encore at Wynn Macau, a resort and casino complex, during the first half of 2010. The company recently completedan IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 25% of its Macau operations.

Caution ahead
Wynn's results should alert investors in other casino operators doing business in Macau, whose stocks also enjoyed strong gains during the third quarter. There's been much hype about IPOs and market share in Macau, but none of it will translate well if revenues are falling.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) issues third-quarter results Thursday and MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) makes its report next week. Continued...

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