I don't know whether executives at
Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are allowed
to drink while on duty. (Only for research purposes, of
course!) But investors can't fault them if they break out a
premium brand today, thanks to second-quarter earnings that
easily beat Wall Street estimates.
For the quarter ended Aug. 31, the world's largest wine
company -- it's in the spirits and beer businesses, too --
posted earnings per share of $0.54, excluding one-time items,
which beat the Wall Street consensus by $0.13.
The greater comfort for investors, though, was
Constellation's confirmation of its fiscal-year EPS estimate
of $1.60 to $1.70, excluding special items. (The average
analyst estimate is $1.65.) In doing so, Constellation
offered a firmer forecast and less uncertainty than
competitors
Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF-B) and
Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO).
Constellation's news also bolsters expectations that
Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) and
MolsonCoors (NYSE: TAP) will be able to raise
their bottom lines with
a little help from price increases.
Not-so-steady predictions
Although Brown-Forman and Fortune Brands recently
reaffirmed fiscal-year estimates, their EPS forecasts offer
such a wide range, excluding one-time items, that final
tallies can't help but match expectations. How wide? Both
forecasts have wider spreads than the differences between the
highest and lowest estimates by analysts.
Brown-Formanexpects fiscal-year earnings per share of
$2.60 to $3.00, excluding one-time items.
Fortune Brands,which also makes golf equipment and
hardware products, is looking for $2.00 to $2.30 for its
fiscal year.
Although
Diageo (NYSE: DEO), the world's largest wine
and spirits company, doesn't offer a specific EPS range, it
recently forecast"low single digit" operating-profit
growth for its fiscal year.
Assessing trends
Comparing forecasts can be a chore for investors
because key players have different reporting periods. Fortune
Brands' fiscal year ends Dec. 31; Brown-Forman's year
concludes April 30; Constellation Brands' year runs through
February; Diageo's fiscal year concludes June 30; and
Central European Distribution 's (Nasdaq:
CEDC) fiscal year matches the calendar year.
However, there are common themes among these alcohol
poducers, such as concerns about economic recovery, increased
competition,
consumers reducing visitsto bars and restaurants, and
drinkers trading down to cheaper, lower-margin beverages. Continued... |