If something smells funny in
Time Warner 's (NYSE: TWX) third-quarter
report, it's the pungent odor of a rotting AOL.
Time Warner's online arm is in a funk at the media giant,
joined by the company's languishing publishing business. Oh,
and just because Time Warner finally plans to spin off AOL
next month doesn't necessarily mean that the stink will go
away.
As a whole, Time Warner's quarter was uninspiring. Revenue
fell 6% to $7.1 billion. Its adjusted profit of $0.61 a share
fell just a few pennies short of last year's $0.65 a share
showing.
Time Warner's network showed steady improvement. Its film
studio was mixed, with a slight top-line dip more than offset
by marginal growth on the bottom line. The company's
publishing arm was a mess, but let's take a closer look at
how AOL has let itself go in recent years.
AOL's revenue and operating income fell by 23% and 50%
respectively. The company's fading access business is old
news. It peaked years ago, so it's not much of a shock to see
just 5.4 million "You've Got Mail" accounts, 2.1 million
fewer subscribers than a year ago.
It's inexplicable to see AOL kill this business off
slowly, when it could have sold it to
Earthlink (Nasdaq: ELNK) or
United Online (Nasdaq: UNTD) while it was
still worth buying. However, there's no use crying over spilt
subs.
The real shame at AOL is it figured that it could make up
for subscriber losses by tearing down its walls and becoming
a more open ad-supported portal.
Well, that's not going so well. Ad revenue has taken an
22% hit over the past year. That certainly doesn't hold up
well against
Google 's (Nasdaq: GOOG) growth during the
same three-month period.
Sure, that's not a fair comparison. Pitting a display
advertising player against Google is like stacking your prom
date against Megan Fox. However, AOL is a laggard among
laggards.
Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and
IAC 's (Nasdaq: IACI) media and advertising
revenue fell by 8% and 12% respectively this past
quarter.
Hopefully the spinoff will do AOL some good. It has
brought on capable leadership from Google and Yahoo! And it
may be willing to take more chances as a stand-alone entity.
It better, quite frankly. When even Yahoo! is laughing at
you, something has to change.
This article was originally published as
What's Wrong, AOL?on
Fool.com
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