Shares of
Novatel Wireless (Nasdaq: NVTL) took a 27%
hit on Friday, after the mobile broadband gadget maker posted
disappointing guidance for the current quarter.
Novatel had been rolling until then. Its revolutionary
MiFi -- the pocket-sized hot spot that can provide online
connectivity for multiple products at the same time -- is
arguably one of this year's coolest tech toys.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) and
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) have been marketing the
MiFi aggressively, because it gives consumers more bang for
their mobile broadband buck than USB modems sold by Novatel
and
Sierra Wireless (Nasdaq: SWIR), which are
limited to a single user and require a laptop to get
going.
It's not just a stateside phenomenon. Wireless carriers in
Singapore, Mexico, and Canada have also teamed up with
Novatel to offer the MiFi.
If this sounds like a recipe for growth, one sentence in
the company's quarterly report was enough to crash the
party.
"Currently, we expect fourth quarter MiFi sales to be
similar to third quarter levels as improving sell through
catches up to initial stocking orders," CEO Peter Leparulo
notes.
Flat sales during the holiday quarter? Carriers ordering
more mobile hot spots than they were able to sell? That's not
pretty.
Novatel's third quarter itself was great. Revenue climbed
20% to $94.3 million. A profit of $0.20 a share was double
what analysts were expecting. However, the company's
fourth-quarter projections of $0.04 to $0.12 a share in
earnings on $85 million to $95 million in revenue imply a
drop on the bottom line compared with the third quarter, and
the high probability of a top-line decline.
The pros don't like it, and they're paid to publicly look
out even further than Novatel. A week ago, Wall Street
figured that Novatel would earn $0.39 a share next year. Now
that has been revised to net income of $0.31 a share.
The good news for Novatel is that its balance sheet is
flush with $5.55 a share in cash and marketable securities.
Back that out, and Novatel is trading at an earnings multiple
of around 10 for next year. A few more foreign MiFi deals
would help. It also wouldn't hurt if Sprint and Verizon
Wireless become more aggressive with their mobile hot spot
pricing plans to reach a larger audience. Continued... |