This hasn't been a good week for China's leading online
stocks.
Shares of
Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU) fell by 16%
yesterday, and
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) is taking its lumps
today, after the Chinese Internet giants posted disappointing
outlooks for the current quarter.
You won't find the negativity in the third-quarter
numbers. Both companies handily beat expectations. Sohu
revenue grew by 13% to $136.6 million, as double-digit gains
at its wireless and majority-owned
Changyou.com (Nasdaq: CYOU) gaming divisions
more than offset a 2% year-over-year decline in its
bread-and-butter brand advertising business. Earnings of
$0.96 a share clocked in well ahead of Mr. Market's
$0.89-per-share target.
Baidu did even better. Revenue soared 39% higher to $187.3
million. Earnings rocketed by 42% to $2.07 a share and would
have come in $0.17 a share higher if not for the company's
fledgling -- and profitless -- operations in Japan.
Unfortunately, the near future isn't as market-thumping as
the past.
Sohu is targeting a profit of $0.90 to $0.95 a share on
$134.5 million to $138.5 million in revenue during the
current quarter. The pros had pegged its fourth-quarter
profit at $0.99 a share on $140.8 million in revenue.
Baidu's miss is even more grim: The company sees revenue
taking a 32% to 36% year-over-year leap. That may sound swell
in this iffy climate, but Wall Street was hoping for a 54%
top-line surge to $202.9 million. Checking in at $174 million
to $180 million -- a dramatic sequential decline, by the way
-- won't cut it.
Baidu at least has an excuse. It's in the process of
cleaning up its online-advertising business. It has been
migrating most of its customers to its Phoenix Nest platform,
similar to
Google 's (Nasdaq: GOOG) AdWords, through
which marketers bid for sponsored ads on the side of search
results. A large part of Baidu's business until now has been
to let advertisers bid for ad placement within its
query-result pages. That ethically gray platform is being
discontinued. The decision may cost Baidu some money in the
near term, but it will make for a more dependable search
engine in the future.
Sohu has less of an excuse. A sequential dip in
profitability -- and possibly on the top line as well --
doesn't bode well for online display advertising. What we see
at Sohu is similar to the trend we're seeing domestically,
with brand-marketing specialist
Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) failing to keep pace
with paid-search giant Google. Sohu peer
SINA (Nasdaq: SINA) doesn't report until next
month, but it will probably deliver more of the same.
Chinese Internet stocks aren't broken. However, they have
posted significant gains over the past year, Baidu in
particular. You have to perpetually beat the market to earn
those gains, and it's just not in the cards for the fourth
quarter.
This article was originally published as
Popping China's Dot-Com Bubbleon
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