On Monday
I asked, "Is
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) overvalued?"
Given the bullish reaction to last night's third-quarter
report, I guess Mr. Market's saying "no."
Amazon headed toward the checkout line with another
monster quarter in its cart. Net sales soared 28% to $5.45
billion, well ahead of analyst expectations of an 18%
top-line jump. At the other end of the income statement, the
pros expected earnings to climb merely 22% to $0.33 a share;
instead, Amazon's profit soared 68%, to $0.45 a share.
Want even better news? Just follow the money. Amazon's
free cash flow over the past year has nearly doubled, to
$1.92 billion. With 451 million shares outstanding, we're
talking about $4.26 a share in
free cash
flowalone. Just keep that in mind the next time a bear
tries to justify a short position by relying on the company's
significantly smaller reported profit number.
Yes, but what will you do for me tomorrow?
However, all these glad tidings don't make
this an ideal time to dive in to the stock. When David
Gardner recommended Amazon.com to
Motley Fool Stock Advisor
subscribers seven years ago, the company traded at
$15.31. Depending on where the stock is trading by the time
you read this, it may have gained that entire amount -- if
not more -- in a single trading day. We call that
a daybagger -- or a spiffy-pop-- around
here.
In retrospect, we'd all be gazillionaires. If someone told
you in the summer of 2002 that you could buy Amazon for less
than four times 2009's free cash flow, even patient bears
would be buyers. So for today's envious, uncertain potential
investors, it's only fair to ask the obvious question: Where
will Amazon be seven years from
now?
Obstacles come in threes
To assess Amazon's opportunities, we must first take
stock of its challenges. Katrina Chan broke out
the primary threatsto Amazon's model earlier this
week:
I'm not worried about the copycats. Every couple of years,
there seems to be a new, hungry upstart nipping at Amazon's
heels. Buy.com,
Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK), and even
Wal-Mart 's (NYSE: WMT) walmart.com have all
risen to the challenge, but Amazon's ultimately left all of
them eating its dust. The power of Amazon's
purchase-promoting
Prime membership planonly gets stronger with every
passing year. Even category specialists who step briefly into
the market's spotlight --
Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE) with jewelry, or
Drugstore.com (Nasdaq: DSCM) with
pharmacy-store sundries -- ultimately can't match Amazon's
sustained growth pace.
The Kindle clones, I do take seriously.
Barnes & Noble 's (NYSE: BKS) Nook raises
the stakes on what e-book fans will expect from of a $259
reader.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is one iTablet
announcement away from changing the way we consume digital
books, magazines, and newspapers. The Kindle may be hot now,
but there will probably never be one single e-book device
standard -- the iPod, if you will -- to rule the land. Continued... |