Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Rick Aristotle Munarriz :: Townhall.com Columnist
Throw This Stock Away
by Rick Aristotle Munarriz
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Every week, I pack a parachute for this column, bailing out of a stock that I feel has hit an uneasy altitude. But on my way down, I'll also offer three perfectly worthy potential replacements.

Who hits the silk this week? Come on down, AMR (NYSE: AMR).

Read 'em and weep
The parent company of American Airlines reports tomorrow, and I doubt shareholders look forward to booking that flight. Rival UAL (Nasdaq: UAUA) posted a loss this morning, and analysts foresee AMR following suit.

The carrier was one of the few to post year-over-year traffic declines last month, and fuel prices are climbing. (Crude oil hit a fresh 52-week high of $80 a barrel this morning, before retreating.) In other words, the situation is ugly and getting uglier.

AMR is probably two years away from turning an annual profit, and that will still be a challenge. As a legacy carrier, AMR's cost structure is out of whack with nimbler carriers, who are either posting profits or at least running reasonable deficits.

American Airlines is still built for corporate travel, and that's a big problem on many different levels. Despite the rise of global business and a growing economic turnaround, videoconferencing technology and online connectivity are curbing the demand for jet-setting business class passengers. There will alwaysbe a need for some form of human interaction, but it's just no longer a savvy tactical decision to bottle up executives in productivity-sapping flights for the sake of client maintenance or employee morale boosts.

AMR's share price has tripled since bottoming out in March, but its fundamentals aren't much brighter. The legacy carrier has been sharp enough to avoid bankruptcy in the past, and it has been prudently raising cash to make it through these lean years. However, it just doesn't have any catalysts for growth.

Analysts see sleek competitors Southwest (NYSE: LUV) and JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) posting a profit this year, so it's not as if airfares aren't high enough. Wall Street sees AMR losing a whopping $4.55 a share in 2009, before generating a significantly smaller deficit next year. Revenue-padding moves -- such as recently introduced checked baggage fees -- seem to be backfiring, based on last month's dip in traffic and Southwest's aggressive "bags fly free" campaign.

AMR's path has been bumpy lately, and there's no reason to think the turbulence will get any better.

Good news
As I do every week, I don't talk down a stock unless I have three alternatives that I believe will outperform the company getting tossed. Let's go over three new fill-ins. Continued...

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