Investing is a lot like trying to stay a few pages ahead in a mystery novel. If you can see where the storyline will go, you can profit from Mr. Market's masterful whodunit.

That's what I try to do with this weekly column. I don't want to be on the same page as everybody else. I want to skip ahead a few chapters and know how things end.

However, even though I bash a stock, I also come right back and offer three perfectly worthy stocks as portfolio replacements.

Who gets tossed out this week? Come on down, Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS).

Read 'em and weep
It's easy to get excited about Barnes & Noble right now. The stock has run up more than 50% since bottoming out 11 months ago. It has beaten analysts' earnings estimates in each of the three past quarters.

The country's leading bookstore chain has a big announcement coming next Tuesday, one that it promises will be "a major event" in the retailer's history. We already know what will happen: B&N will introduce its e-book reader, in an attempt to finally take on Amazon.com 's (Nasdaq: AMZN) Kindle and Sony 's (NYSE: SNE) Reader.

Some of the product snapshots were leaked to Gizmodo this week, and B&N's device looks slick. The portable reader has a multitouch screen in full color.

The problem, of course, is that there's no way that B&N will be able to match Amazon on price. The Kindle hit the market at $399 nearly two years ago. Three price cuts later, bibliophiles can get a shiny new Kindle for just $259.

Unless the B&N gadget doubles as a coffee maker, vacuum cleaner, or tennis instructor, it's going to have a hard time persuading cash-strapped patrons to fork over $300 to $400 for this thing.

The e-book market is intriguing, but it's probably a smaller market than anyone thinks. Only hardcore readers can make up the three-figure price tags in e-book volume, and many of those will die as traditional page-turners.

The bigger question may be what B&N stands to gain by turning its most active customers into digitally based homebodies. Can B&N succeed when all that's left is the lunch-break crowd that waltzes in to leaf through magazines and "how to" guides that won't be purchased?

If it's successful, B&N will wean readers off its bricks-and-mortar stores but keep them buying products. If it fails, it's simply telegraphing its self-admitted obsolescence and educating shoppers on the merits of digital delivery. It can learn a thing or two from Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI), a media retailer that threw its hat into the digital ring with aplomb several years ago, only to realize that it's more important to reposition its stores into relevance regardless of which way the digital winds blow. Continued...