"As stock markets slid in March, Judy Brady lay awake at
night thinking about her portfolio. 'My retired friends who
had all CDs and gold, and they were still making money, and
my investments just kept going and going,' she said. 'I
thought: I can't afford to lose all this.' So the 70-year-old
retiree in Schaumburg, Ill., sold most of her stocks."
 --
The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2009
For 17 long months, the S&P 500 slid from an Oct. 11,
2007 high of 1576 to its 677-point nadir on March 9, 2009. By
that time, this widely watched index of America's 500 biggest
and best firms had lost 57% of its value.
Little wonder that Ms. Brady panicked, or that so many
investors like her could not take the pain anymore, and sold
at the bottom. The great wonder is that not everyone
didcash out and swear off the stock market for good.
And for those who stayed the course, this great wonder has
turned into great good fortune.
Since hitting bottom, the S&P 500 has soared 59% in
seven months, leaving those who sold at the bottom lying in
the dust.
But how was I to know?
You weren't. You couldn't. Whether you're one of the
unfortunates who sold at the actual market bottom, or you
simply failed to buy at the lows, you shouldn't beat yourself
up just because you missed out on one of the stock market's
great rallies. In truth,
it's just not possible to time the market.
And even if you
couldtime the market, there's no guarantee it would
have made a difference. To paraphrase legendary investor
Peter Lynch: "There's only one reason to buy a stock (i.e.
because you think it will go up), but many reasons you may
need to sell." Whether you needed to sell stock to pay
medical bills, college tuition, or simply living expenses as
the result of an unexpected job loss -- no one's going to
blame you for cashing out at the bottom.
Or maybe you're on a fixed income, and you depend on your
investments to provide a steady flow of funds to live on. The
past year has seen many companies we never thought of as
"weak" forced to staple their wallets shut.
Alcoa (NYSE: AA),
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and
Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) have each
slashed dividendsto the bone. If you bought a stock in
reliance on the dividend it paid, and it then cut that
dividend, then you no longer owned what you'd bargained for.
It was surely time to sell.
And then there's the best reason of all to sell: You
simply weren't comfortable with the investment. If you had
too much money at risk in the market -- and then that risk
materialized-- then of course you needed to sell!
People need to be able to sleep at night. If you had so much
of your net worth tied up in stocks that their daily
gyrations gave you insomnia, then there's no two ways about
it. Those stocks had to go.
So I repeat: Do not beat yourself up about this. The past
is past, and the question today is much simpler: What do you
do now?
It's not too late
Now that you've lived through the market meltdown, I'll
bet you have a much better idea of how much risk you can
tolerate. Now it's time to invest up to, but not beyond, that
limit. First of all, set aside enough cash to keep you going
through at least six months of living expenses, and don't
push cash into the market that you're going to need in the
next five years. Whatever's left is what you have available
for investment. And as you've seen over the last four months,
the stock market is the best way to increase the value of
your investments.
Here at the Fool, we know this from personal experience.
You see, way back when we began recommending stocks to our
subscribers, the market was still reeling from the
aftershocks of the Great Tech Bubble. We started up
Motley Fool Stock Advisor
in the teeth of the bear market of '02. But by ignoring
the headlines and focusing on buying great companies, the
ensuing seven years have us beating the market soundly -- up
49.4% versus the market's anemic 1.3%
decline.
Consider that while the KO'ed stock market has lifted
itself up off the mat for a 59% rebound, it's
still32% below its high water mark. To return to the
prices of yesteryear, the S&P will need to rise another
48%. That would suggest there remains plenty of upside
left. Continued... |