Monday, October 26, 2009
Rich Smith :: Townhall.com Columnist
This Just In: Upgrades and Downgrades
by Rich Smith
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At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.

But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we track the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and its worst and sorriest, too.

And speaking of the best ...
What do you do when one of the best bankersin the market suddenly upgrades shares of one of the hottest stocks in the always-hot energy sector? Personally, I listen up. And from what I hear, ace stockpicker Stifel Nicolausthinks Shaw Group (Nasdaq: SHAW) could go nuclear.

Predicting continued hikes in the price of oilas the dollar drops, Stifel says Shaw's "project backlog" looks secure. (Shaw builds the infrastructure for both fossil fuel power plants and nukes alike, for clients including Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), and General Electric (NYSE: GE).) What's more, according to Stifel, the stock "appears inexpensive versus peers with similar [return on invested capital], and as such we believe the operational improvements instituted by management are underappreciated." Factor in additional "revenue from Shaw's nuclear plant construction projects," and this undervalued stock rates a "buy" from Stifel.

But is that good enough to win it a place in yourportfolio?

Let's go to the tape
It depends. Personally, when I look at Stifel's record in the Construction and Engineeringsector ... and see that this analyst has historically gotten twice as many picks right as wrong ... and generally walloped the market in the process ...

Stifel Says

CAPS Says

Stifel's Picks Beating (Lagging) S&P by

Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT)

Outperform

*****

55 points

Fluor Corp (NYSE: FLR)

Outperform

***

42 points

Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) Continued...

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About The Author

Rich Smith is a business writer with the Motley Fool.

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