Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Rich Greifner :: Townhall.com Columnist
Stop Buying These Stocks
by Rich Greifner
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A few weeks ago, my Foolish friends Brian Richards and Tim Hanson profiled five stocks they felt investors should avoid. Their argument struck me as pretty straightforward: Investors would be well-served to avoid companies with opaque financial statements (like Citigroup (NYSE: C)) or complicated government ties (like, um, Citigroup).

Apparently many members of our community disagreed.

Pointing to their significant short-term gains in stocks such as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Ford (NYSE: F), many readers (rather rudely, in my opinion) insisted that Brian and Tim’s analysis was invalid.

This comment from IronBob is a good representation of the feedback that Brian and Tim received:

INCREDIBLE! Thanks for the advice! I'm glad I'm ignoring it as I almost doubled my money on Ford in less than two months!

While I’m happy for IronBob, I’d like to caution readers that his returns are hardly typical -- and that short-term speculating in no-moat companies is simply not a sound investing strategy.

Just say no ... to short-term speculation
Jumping in and out of stocks is certainly exciting, and -- if you're lucky -- it can result in some satisfying short-term profits. But over the long haul, active trading is a loser's game.

For starters, you have to correctly predict both the direction and the timing of a stock's move, which most experts agree is impossible to do with any consistency. Anyone can get lucky once or twice, but repeatedly? Forget it.

And then there are the frictional costs of taxes and trading commissions, which can combine to take a big bite out of your returns.

Plus, there's the unfortunate fact that we humans make for lousy traders. We tend to sense patterns that don't exist, overreact to innocuous stimuli, sell our winners too soon, and hang on to our losers for too long.

In an oft-cited study, professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean found a strong correlation between active trading tendencies and abysmal stock returns. In other words, the more frequently their subjects traded in and out of stocks, the worse their portfolios performed.

A perfect storm for poor performance
Unfortunately, the current climate has created the ideal scenario for short-term speculation.

Investors of all shapes and sizes have lost a significant amount of money in a relatively short time span. The heightened market volatility has made for some sensational short-term price swings. And the economy appears to be headed down the tubes.

Based on the volume and content of our reader comments and hate mail, it’s clear that these factors have combined to make investors increasingly short-term-oriented and willing to invest in companies with highly uncertain futures. During the market rally over the last month or so, these traits have been rewarded. But if history is any guide, that will not be the case over the long haul.

What this means for you
In other words, if you're interested in preserving your capital and accumulating long-term wealth, stay away from short-term speculation in subpar companies. Continued...

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Rich Greifner is a Motley Fool contributor.

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Rich,

I enjoyed your article. I agree going in and out of stocks within a couple months will not work.

I have been an investor for a long time using mostly financial advisors for a % of my value, usually about 1%.

But when the market goes down my values have gone down because I did nothing nor was I told to take evasive action. I have lost a lot of money, more than half. That has happened several times.

This time I decided with the little I have left to try calling the shots myself.

Trusting others has cost me dearly. I sent for a subscription to a "doomsayer" you might think, that recommends gold, commodities, health care, energy and similar. I am in the process of revamping my portfolio.

This will not required selling anything every few weeks or months. But it will require me to keep up with the economy to make sure I am in the right sectors. In a few years I expect I have to make more changes to accomodate what is hot.

No other advisor has ever told me this. I read it and it makes sense to me. Right now I tell my advisor what changes to make. I just use him as a fancy secretary.

My point is that in economies like we are in especially with the turmoil cause mostly by political machinations, I would never trust an advisor again.

If I go down myself so be it. I am determined to try something different based on what I learned. It is very difficult emotionally. But I hope a realistic evaluation of where we are politically is necessary. I believe if I did not make this change the markets would devastate me in a couple years.

Does anyone else have a similar experience of financial rebirth? Do anyone have advise, suggestions?
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