For most investors, option investing leads to permanent
capital losses. But there is one type of
equity optionthat, when used and understood carefully,
can offer fantastic potential many times the return.
Invest for the long term
LEAPS -- which stands for Long-Term Equity
Anticipation Securities -- is just a fancy name for long-term
stock options. LEAPS usually extend as far as two-and-a-half
years into the future, and they operate just like traditional
options. They give you the right to buy (we'll stick to call
options) a certain stock at a certain price within a certain
time.
Most option investors incur losses not because they've
incorrectly analyzed the bull or bear thesis of a business,
but rather because the option expires before the
stock price had time to follow the business performance. And
although most investors won't be able to buy really long-term
options -- like the ones
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE:
BRK-B) wrote on stock indexes, with expirations 10 years or
more in the future -- LEAPS have long enough lifespans to get
you past a lot of the noise of short-term market
fluctuations.
Remember: We are investing
If you look for good businesses and try to
leverage your returns by investing in long-term options, you
are approaching the process backwards. Choosing to invest in
long-term options should come as a byproduct of your research
efforts.
Before you investigate LEAPS, wait for an unusual
investment opportunity to grab your attention. After you find
a business that offers a compelling investment opportunity,
you can determine whether an investment in a long-term option
would benefit you.
The long time frame LEAPS provide investors also offers
adequate time for the investment to play out. To use
long-term options wisely and profitably, two conditions in
the underlying business should exist:
intrinsic value.
Special situations.
A compelling equity investment
In the recent rally, anyone who bought LEAPS
on risky stocks such as
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS),
Citigroup (NYSE: C), and
Ford Motor (NYSE: F) has hit the jackpot. But
typically, you wouldn't buy long-term options on severely
beaten-down businesses, simply because they are selling near
multi-year lows and you have a gut feeling the shares will
somehow find their way back up. To invest in long-term
options prudently, investors need to put in the same
disciplined research as they do with equity investing.
Similarly, you want to avoid the long-term options of
businesses that aren't trading at significant discounts
--Â less than 50% to 75% -- of intrinsic value. The
reason is simple. Investing in a long-term option of a $30
stock that you feel will be worth $40 to $50 in two years
will not offer a return that
would compensate for the risk.
Case study: Wells Fargo LEAPS
An excellent example of a LEAP candidate was
described in
You Can Be a Stock Market Geniusby Joel Greenblatt.
During late 1992 and early 1993,
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) was trading for
around $77 a share. At that time, California was going
through one of its worst real estate recessions. Wells Fargo
had a huge concentration of commercial real estate loans,
more than its largest competitor at the time,
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).
At the then-current share price, Wells earned nearly $36 a
share in pre-tax profits, but the earnings were eaten up by
heavy loan loss provisions that seemed overly conservative.
During typical real estate conditions, loss provisions were
about $6 a share. Assuming a 40% tax rate, the $30 in
earnings would be about $18 a share. At a very fair multiple
of 10, this meant Wells Fargo could be trading at $180.
Conditions like these make an investment in a long-term
option very favorable. The discount to assessed intrinsic
value was very high and made an excellent investment. Continued... |