Look how far we've come, Fools: One year ago, banks were
ridiculed for making so many bad loans. Today, they're being
threatened with fines for not making enough.
Earlier this year, the government enacted a $75 billion
stimulus program to entice banks to modify mortgages. So far,
the program has been
a dud. In order to ensure that banks and mortgage
servicers are doing their part, the Treasury warned on Monday
that those not modifying fast enough "will be subject to
consequences which could include monetary penalties and
sanctions."
Modify more mortgages, or be fined. Yikes. This is serious
business. But why is the program failing so hard that banks
and servicers have to be threatened with fines?
First, the numbers. There are two phases to the
modification process: the trial modification, where a bank or
servicer modifies the loan, and a second step, in which the
modification is made permanent. In order to become permanent,
borrowers have to make three on-time payments and document
their financial condition.
So far, trial modifications have been on fire:
Month
Trial Modifications Granted
(cumulative)
May and Prior Â
50,130
June
143,276
July
253,673
August
386,865
September
487,081
October
650,994
Source:
makinghomesaffordable.gov.
No complaints there. The
original goalwas to hit 500,000 trial modifications by
early November. Done and done.
Permanent modifications are another story. Data is hard to
come by -- the Treasury conveniently leaves out current
figures -- but with straight faces, the Treasury and
Department of Housing and Urban Development recently
predicted that 375,000 trial modifications will be made
permanent by year end.
Now here comes the punchline: The Congressional Oversight
Panel reports that from March until September, only 1,711
trial modifications were made permanent. Ouch.
Among these 1,711 permanent modifications, just one small
servicer,
Ocwen Financial Group (NYSE: OCN), claims it
alone accounts for 44.6% of the total. Back out Ocwen's
percentage, and the rest of the mortgage industry made a
nearly insignificant number of trial modifications
permanent.
So what, you ask, is tripping up permanent modifications?
Let's count the ways:
1. They don't work
The numbers on modification redefaults --
mortgages that fall back into default after being modified --
are atrocious:
Modification Date
30 Days Delinquent, 3 Months after
Modification
6 Months after Modification
9 Months after Modification
12 Months after Modification
First Quarter 2008
40.3%
53.6%
60.7%
65.9%
Second Quarter 2008
46.4%
59.0%
63.9%
67.0%
Third Quarter 2008 Continued... |