Mortgages. Leverage. Profits.
That's the story of
Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY). It scares the
bejeezus out of plenty, thanks to its outward resemblance to
Wall Street's folly. In some respects, it should. But subtle
differences in this company's business model make it
sustainable -- and still hugely profitable.
Its
GAAP net incomefor the third quarter came in at $285
million, or $0.51 per share, compared with $302 million, or
$0.55 per share, in the same period last year. Using a metric
the company calls "core earnings," a non-GAAP but more
inclusive measure of profitability, earnings were $413
million, or $0.75 per share.
Quarterly dividends were $0.69 per share. Annualize that
out and throw it over today's opening share price, and you
get a 16.5% yield. That's why people love this stock.
So what makes it different from Wall Street's idiocy?
Unlike the insane private mortgage-backed products companies
like
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) got tangled up
in, Annaly invests almost exclusively in
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) securities, where
interest and principal are guaranteed by taxpayers. That
leaves but one risk: Interest-rate fluctuations that backfire
on leverage.
Right now, companies can borrow in short-term markets for
basically nothing, and invest in long-term securities
yielding a lot more than nothing. It's called a steep yield
curve, and it has been a godsend for companies like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS),
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and Annaly
Capital.
But reversing the monetary policy implemented over the
past year could -- no,
will-- mean spectacular interest-rate shifts in the
years ahead. Those shifts could be far more violent than
anyone anticipates, quickly boomeranging Annaly's cash flow.
When the cost of short-term liabilities increases while
you're locked into fixed-rate long-term assets, bad things
happen. Just ask Bear Stearns. Or Lehman Brothers.
This, in fact, explains Annaly's huge dividend yield: Many
investors don't think it's sustainable.
Management, though, can effectively hedge interest-rate
risk. It can do this by holding just the right combination of
fixed and floating-rate securities, whereby one offsets the
other depending on the interest-rate climate.
Canis the key word there -- and there's no guarantee
that management will execute flawlessly. So far, it has done
a spectacular job. Whether it can keep it up holds 100% of
the answer to Annaly's future success.
For now, profits are both great and real. Annaly is a
fantastic story that has been kind for those willing to take
the plunge. But this story isn't without risks, and investors
would be wise to keep that in mind before thinking they're
getting a completely safe 16% yield.
This article was originally published as
Annaly Keeps Charging Aheadon
Fool.com
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