We all know
optimism is backin stocks. Markets are happy. Money
managers are happy. Bankers at
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) are
reallyhappy.
But what about average Billy Joes and Bobbie Sues? After
rebounding sharply, overall consumer confidence is back in
decline:
Month
Consumer Confidence
October
47.67
September
53.43
August
54.48
July
47.37
June
49.32
May
54.81
April
40.81
March
26.90
February
25.30
Source: Capital IQ, a division of
Standard & Poor's.
October's 10% decline took some off guard -- average
estimates were for the reading to come in about flat. One or
two months doesn't a trend make, and we should also point out
that today's reading is nearly double the trough levels of
earlier this year.
But you'll notice that confidence has gone pretty much
nowhere since June. During that time, the S&P 500 has
surged 15%, the Dow
broke through10,000, companies like
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and
American Express (NYSE: AXP) jumped more than
50%, and the S&P Case-Shiller home price index even rose
four months in row. That, you'd think, would be a pretty
strong confidence boost, as families watch their crushed net
worths crawl back.
So to get a better understanding of why consumer
confidence is stalling, we have dig a little deeper into
respondents' specific answers:
Section
October
September
Percent Anticipating Improving Business Conditions
in Next Six Months Continued... |