When
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) CEO Ken Lewis
announcedhis resignation earlier this month, many people
asked: Would he have thrown in the towel two weeks before
announcing earnings if those earnings were anything but
terrible?
No, he probably wouldn't have. And for the most part, they
were.
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The third quarter produced a loss of $1 billion. Factor in
$1.2 billion in preferred dividends (most stemming from TARP
payments to taxpayers), and common shareholders took a loss
of $2.2 billion, or $0.26 per share. That compares to a
profit of $1.2 billion, or $0.15 per share, in the same
period last year (although year-over-year comparisons aren't
entirely fair, because of the Merrill Lynch acquisition.)
As
predicted earlier this week, improvements in default
spreads on B of A's own debt did some damage. Contracting
credit spreads led to a $2.6 billion writedown. "The market's
improved view of Bank of
America's credit cost the company," said Lewis.
That's true, but these losses are simply the reversal of
equally annoying gains
posted earlier this yearwhen spreads blew out. If the
accounting community would come together and agree that this
accounting rule, net-net, is maddeningly useless, we'd all
appreciate it. Thanks.
Yet even before accounting charges, results made no one
smile, especially when compared to the blowout earnings of
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). Total provision for
credit losses hit $11.7 billion. An additional $2.1 billion
was added to credit-loss reserves. Nonperforming assets
increased to 1.51%, from 1.38%. The allowance for losses as a
percentage of nonperforming loans and leases fell to 112%,
from 116%.
These aren't terribly surprising figures: Every commercial
bank -- including the commercial segment at JPMorgan -- is
still slogging through credit losses. But B of A doesn't have
the trading heft to make up for consumer-loan losses like
JPMorgan does. And there's one area where B of A's lending
book still lags behind the rest. Reserves for losses as a
percentage of loans sits at 4%, compared with 4.7% for
JPMorgan, and nearly 6% at
Citigroup (NYSE: C). This might be fair if B
of A's books were proportionally healthier than its peers,
but in many areas, that's not the case.
If you dig for sunshine, you might find it in what looks
like stabilization of credit card delinquencies, in both
early and late stages. Thirty-day-plus delinquencies fell 29
basis points, and 90-day-plus fell 45 basis points. This is
somewhat contradictory to a Moody's report, which
showedthat early-stage delinquencies rose in August for
the industry as a whole.
Whether that quarterly trend is sustainable remains to be
seen. But even a diehard banking bear like me has to admit:
If those delinquency stabilization trends hold up, you'll
start seeing legitimate earnings power before long.
How much earnings power?That's the real question.
What do you think? Is the worst behind B of A? Are shares
a buy at these levels? Let me know in the comment section
below.
This article was originally published as
Bank of America: Still Stumblingon
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