Government intervention, like it or not, is everywhere in
today's economy. While companies such as
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS),
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and
American Express (NYSE: AXP) repaid their
bailout funds in full, Washington still has a firm grip on
companies such as
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). These ownership
stakes that took shape around this time last year were
unprecedented, to say the least.
Yet some of the most powerful interventions don't grab as
much attention, because they target the whole economy, rather
than individual companies that are easy to point fingers at.
They're the interest rate cuts, tax policies, liquidity
injections, and stimulus packages that began years ago.
To get a better understanding of the latter, I recently
had a brief email chat with Stanford economist John Taylor.
Dr. Taylor is perhaps most famous for creating the
Taylor
Rule, a formula that guides monetary policy and has
become a standard lesson in nearly every economic textbook.
Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Paul Krugman have all
frequently cited his work.
His latest book,
Getting Off Track
, argues that failed government policy created and
prolonged the financial crisis. Below is a summary of our
conversation, which centered on the book's main topics:
The biggest surprise [of economic policy over the past
few years] was the return -- with no empirical evidence
that it would work -- to highly discretionary policy
interventionism after two decades of emphasis on developing
clear predictable policies where government tried to set
the rules for the market and then tried to get out of the
way. For example, the
stimulus package of 2008of temporary tax rebates was
passed with much support, even though there was no evidence
that it would work (and it did not). This
activism is being increased now, despite even more evidence
that it does not work. More generally,
policymakers have developed a bailout mentality
which will be hard to reverse.
I am more convinced that the economic policies the
United States was using from the early 1980s until recently
were responsible for both creating economic stability and
encouraging economic growth during that
period. My earlier research had shown, for
example, that the period of the Great Moderation was
largely due to good monetary policy. But now we
have even more evidence: Once we got off track, economic
performance deteriorated significantly.
Over the past year, my concerns about the difficulty of
implementing good government policy have
grown. For example, when I was heading up the
international division at the United States Treasury
(2001-2005) I was in charge of developing and then
implementing a policy of a new currency for
Iraq. I later wrote a "lessons learned" book
about such implementation tasks, showing how difficult they
were and how policymakers need to be more
concerned about implementation of policy. Now we
are learning more about how existing supervisory and
regulatory policy was not implemented well, as exemplified
by the problems in the highly supervised and regulated
banks and the gaps relating to the [structured investment
vehicles]. I also think that the intervention
into [
Washington Mutual ] and Wachovia raises
questions about how an even more complex resolution process
would be implemented in practice.
I also asked Dr. Taylor to provide a list of economic
policies that he believes are the most damaging to the
economy. His answers:
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE)].
The rapid expansion of liquidity starting in 2007, when
the problem was risk rather than liquidity. I believe this
weakened the dollar and helped accelerate the huge run-up
of oil prices in the spring of 2008. You can
include the "stimulus" package of 2008 in this category, as
well as the [
term auction facility] and the sharper-than-needed cuts
in the Fed funds rate in the winter/spring of 2008.
The chaotic interventions into financial
firms. After Bear Stearns, policy should have
been clarified, but it was not. Thus the [
Lehman Brothers ] event was an unnecessary
surprise followed by more confusion around the time of the
TARP rollout. The severe panic of the fall of 2008 was a
serious blow to the economy; while we will be sorting this
out for many years, I think these policy responses made it
worse.
The explosion of the Fed's balance sheet, especially if
it proves difficult to rein in.
The "stimulus" package of 2009 and the associated
massive increases in the federal debt.
The purchase of medium term Treasury bonds by the Fed
in 2009.
Have your own thoughts on the outcome of Uncle Sam's hand
in the economy? Feel free to share them in the comment
section below.
For related Foolishness:
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This article was originally published as
You Failed Us, Uncle Samon
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