The FDIC is broke -- running out of cash even as the
number of failing banks it insures is rising. With $10.4
billion backing $4.8 trillion in assets at the end of June,
the agency is, as a doctor might put it, not compatible with
life.
No need to worry, though. The agency has several
possibilities to refill its coffers relatively quickly.
Show me the money
The most failsafe option is to borrow from the
Treasury, where the FDIC has a $500 billion line of credit.
This is politically thorny, though, since it reeks of yet
another taxpayer bailout.
Another option is a one-time assessment charged to the
thousands of banks the FDIC insures, as happened earlier this
year. But this makes bankers squeal, since it eats into
earnings -- especially troubling for deposit-heavy banks such
as
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).
A third, mind-bending option involves
borrowingmoney from strong banks like
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB). This might seem
rational, but as my colleague Anand Chokkavelu noted last
week, "[I]n effect, the Treasury is funneling
money to the banks, who are then funneling
money to the FDIC, so that the FDIC doesn't have
to borrow money from the Treasury."
Door number four
The FDIC proposed a little-known fourth option on
Tuesday. Rather than a one-time special assessment, banks
will prepay their standard FDIC premiums at the end of this
year through 2012. Rather than making a standard quarterly
payment, they'll make a three-year payment up front.
The FDIC says that doing so will raise $45 billion. Great!
That'll put its deposit insurance fund back up to the levels
it occupied before banks started dying in droves.
But this is no panacea. In many ways, it's just delaying
the inevitable.
Banks love the idea, because it sidesteps the
one-time assessmentthat would have hammered earnings. By
prepaying standard fees, they can amortize charges out to
2012, and hold the balance as a prepaid asset. Earnings won't
take any more of a hit than they would from paying standard
fees.
However, by not charging a special assessment, the agency
raises no additional money. The FDIC gets the money
sooner, but it doesn't get
morethan it otherwise would from standard
charges.
So what happens if this $45 billion runs out, especially
if it happens before 2012? The FDIC just announced that
losses from bank failures could hit $100 billion through
2013. That will almost certainly put the agency back in a
bind
at the same time banks aren't making quarterly payments
anymore,since future payments will already have been
prepaid. Continued... |