Consumer stocks are now as risky as they've ever been. Unemployment's historically high, consumers are spooked, and subpar earnings abound, as companies pay the price for lost competitive advantage or fiscal irresponsibility. But tough times can offer investors the best chance to buy stocks. 

Even if stock prices are low, investors still need to be careful. Many companies simply won't survive the recession in their current form. However, thinning the herd of weaker competitors should lead to big winners in the consumer space when the economy recovers. I've already highlighted two reasons to sellinternational tobacco giant Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM). Here, I've listed two reasons to pull the "buy" trigger on this smoking stalwart.

1. My, what a big, safe yield
If you're investing in a large-cap consumer-goods company, you're probably looking for a meaty dividendto supplement what will likely be low-teens profit growth (at best) over the long term. But the simple presence of a dividend is not enough: You want a high absolute yield that's also sustainable through business ups and downs.

In the table below, I've compared Philip Morris International's yield and levered FCF payout ratio to that of U.S.-focused tobacco companies, in addition to the shares of three of the better-known, higher-yielding consumer-staples companies. As an alternative to earnings, I've used levered free cash flow -- the cash that's left over after a company has paid interest on debt, and invested in the ongoing business via capital expenditures. Ratios less than 75%-80% are generally a sign that management is leaving room to meet debt maturities, and to enhance shareholder value through acquisitions or share buybacks.

Company

Dividend Yield

TTM Levered FCF Payout Ratio

Philip Morris International

4.8%

70.6%

Lorillard (NYSE: LO)

5.4%

72.2%

Altria (NYSE: MO)

7.6%

60.6%

Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI)

7.5%

48.6%

ConAgra (NYSE: CAG)

3.7%

493.6%

H. J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ)

4.2%

83.4%

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)

3.1%

51.2%

Data from Yahoo! Finance and CapitalIQ on Oct. 28.

Clearly, Philip Morris International beats out the consumer-staples companies, sporting a higher yield without committing to an overly aggressive payout ratio. The domestic smokes players pretty much trump Big Phil on both factors, but Philip Morris operates only internationally. Thus, as the dollar falls, its profit (and the possibility for meaty dividends) rises. Have you seen the massive decline in the dollar recently? Continued...