Nike (NYSE: NKE) held the bottom line in its
latest quarter, thanks to leaner operations and a lower share
count. The stock is sprinting ahead as a result, but in the
near term, the footwear and apparel leader might at best see
business tick up at a power-walk pace.
Revenue came in at $4.8 billion, down 12% year over year,
or 7% on a constant-currency basis. The results also marked a
wider sales decline from the previous quarter. Meanwhile,
futures orders -- Nike's program allowing retailers to place
orders up to six months ahead of delivery -- indicated a less
skittish marketplace. However, orders were still down year
over year.
Weak sales are no surprise, given shaky consumer
confidence and a tough comparison against last year's lead-up
to the Olympic Games in Beijing. Yet among footwear and
active-lifestyle companies, Nike's anemic top-line
performance looks pretty good. It beat out the most recently
reported currency-neutral results of adidas Group and
VF (NYSE: VFC), and rocked the shoes off the
overall performance of
Volcom (Nasdaq: VLCM). There was
no touching
Under Armour (NYSE: UA), however, where
second-quarter revenue climbed 5.1%.
Lululemon athletica (Nasdaq: LULU) was
another outlier: Second-quarter same-store sales declined
a mere 2% in constant dollars.
Solid profitability was probably the highlight for Nike.
Previous job cuts, more conservative inventory management,
and subdued marketing activity versus last year's push for
the Olympics and the European Championships all helped keep
net income flat at $513 million. A lower share count then
transformed "flat" into a 1% rise on an earnings-per-share
basis. On the other hand (or foot), gross margin contracted,
as the company lowered prices to move product.
Nike's future contains reasons for cautious optimism. For
one, market researcher SportScanInfo reports that Nike gained
market share in U.S. footwear, as brands including adidas,
Reebok, and New Balance shrank. Also, management reports that
average selling prices are firming in most markets, while
emerging-market futures orders are up 10%.
As for the outlook, management stuck to its forecast of a
slow and gradual improvement for the broad economy, otherwise
known as the company-branded "swoosh-shaped recovery." Even
so, management emphasized that "we're cautious and playing
our role in this industry in a prudent way." In
currency-neutral terms, Nike expects full-year revenue and
gross margin to fall.
In classic form, a Wall Street upgrade -- in this case,
from
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) -- hit the wires
just as shares broke a year-to-date high. Last week, I
suggested that Nike shares
in the low $50slooked like an attractive entry point,
based on historical P/E levels. I'm sticking to my guns even
as the stock soars.
Of course, on a multiyear basis, there's nothing wrong
with buying now. But if the swoosh recovery begins to
flatline, shares at these prices don't buy
much downside cushion, which could leave investors with
serious aches and pains.
Related Foolishness:
Three Reasons Not to Miss the Volcom Boat
Under Armour Is Everywhere
The Highest Possible Returns. Period.
This article was originally published as
Nike's Still Got No Bounceon
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