The story of
Kraft 's (NYSE: KFT) bid for U.K.-based
confectionery leader
Cadbury (NYSE: CBY) is moving along more
quickly than I anticipated. The latest installment? Cadbury
management may not be so reluctant to be acquired after
all.
Willy Wonka plot twists
To quickly recap, Cadbury had
previously denouncedpackaged-foods giant Kraft's offer,
asserting that the bid undervalued Cadbury's stand-alone
prospects, and furthermore described the dreary notion of
being "absorbed into Kraft's low growth conglomerate business
model."
Speaking with
The Wall Street Journalin a Monday interview,
Cadbury CEO Todd Stitzer embraced a tone that shaded more
toward humble pie than bold dark chocolate. Specifically,
Stitzer seemingly recanted previous company remarks,
announcing, "I would never say there's not some strategic
sense in these businesses coming together." Regarding
European and emerging markets regions, Stitzer recognized
potential synergies of a combined Kraft-Cadbury.
Meanwhile, according to the
WSJ, Cadbury's trying to kick the bidding process
into high gear, having asked the U.K. Panel on Takeovers and
Mergers to issue a deadline by which Kraft must formalize any
offer. Now, I previously speculated that
Nestle (OTC: NSRGY),
Unilever (NYSE: UL), or even household and
personal-care goliath
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG)
could emerge with counter-bids, but this move to push
Kraft forward may signal no such expectation on Cadbury's
part. Â
Alternatively, let's acknowledge that it's tough to do
business while fielding a constant blitz of media and
shareholder inquiries. The confectioner's assertive stance
could simply reflect a desire to say "no thanks" once and for
all, and return to the serious business of selling Creme Eggs
and Bubbaloo.
Ah, but the candy-coated intrigue
doesn't quite end here, Fools.
Hershey (NYSE: HSY), a much smaller,
U.S.-focused version of Cadbury, remains the wild card. The
company's largest controlling shareholder, The Hershey Trust,
has reportedly hired a former
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) banker to advise on
a potential Cadbury bid.
With $5.3 billion in annual revenue against $1.5 billion
in long-term debt, it's doubtful that Hershey could raise the
necessary cash to approach Cadbury's $17.6 billion market
cap. That leaves financing to a possibly massive share
issuance -- an unlikely route, according to analysts, given
that the ensuing dilution could make bite-sized Milk Duds out
of the Trust's ownership stake.
Buffett knows best?
For all of you current or would-be Kraft shareholders,
let's note that Warren Buffet, whose Berkshire Hathaway owns
10% of the company, has said that Kraft's existing offer
represents "full price" for Cadbury. Continued... |