Consumer stocks are now as risky as they've ever been.
Unemployment's historically high,
consumers are spooked, and subpar earnings abound as
companies pay the price for lost competitive advantage or
fiscal irresponsibility. But tough times can offer investors
the best chance to buy stocks.Â
Even if stock prices are low, investors still need to be
careful. Many companies simply won't survive the
recession in their current form. And even if you love an
investment, it's always Foolish to play devil's advocate,
probing for its potential weak spots. To keep you and your
portfolio ready for anything, I've highlighted two reasons to
loathe
Campbell (NYSE: CPB).
Global shelf space
Last week, I
warmed up a pot of lovefor Campbell, naming the iconic
soup and sauce maker a consistent performer for uncertain
times. In this follow-up profile, I'll do my darnedest to
sour your appetite for shares.
From in-store displays and updated packaging, to
dinnertime commercials and Sunday coupons, everyday shoppers
know that packaged-foods companies are locked in constant
competition. And while regularly rebranding and rolling out
new products is a perfectly acceptable business strategy,
it's a daily battle that by definition has losers. Abroad,
however, worldwide patterns of population and economic growth
promise a megatrend from which the entire industry can
profit.
But with its
emerging marketsexposure representing less than 1% of net
sales, Campbell has a crumb, while companies such as
Kraft (NYSE: KFT),
Unilever (NYSE: UL),
H.J. Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), and
PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) are taking the cake.
Sure, management has ambitious plans to expand into Russia
and China. But from a shareholder perspective, waiting for
that push to show meaningfully in overall results may feel
like watching the proverbial pot that never
boils.Â
Higher prices trouble consumers
If Campbell's undernourished geographic footprint
hasn't stirred your antipathy, perhaps its recent volume
performance will. Wet soup as a category has benefitted from
recession-induced penny pinching, but Campbell's soup
business saw a 1.8% volume decline for the 12 months ended
April 2009, versus a 1.7% gain for the overall category. The
cause? Campbell's higher prices -- necessitated by cost
inflation -- drove consumers toward cheaper private-label
products.
In coming quarters, Campbell's extensive product
innovations should bring in new business from consumers who
are cooking at home more often, helping to replace volume
lost from longtime customers who are trading down. But when
you have the option to buy a company such as
J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM), which is already
enjoying volume growth, Campbell looks like a lousy laggard
indeed.
What do you think?
We've made our Foolish case on Campbell -- now it's
your turn. Do you loathe Campbell? Love it? Share your
comments below.
A hearty bowl of further Foolishness:
another round of pain.
This food company's a
sweet takeover target.
Chow downon growth names.
This article was originally published as
2 Big Reasons to Loathe Campbellon
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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