With stalwarts such as
Kraft (NYSE: KFT) and
General Mills (NYSE: GIS) in its ranks, the
packaged-foods group often appeals to investors with the
promise of moderate but stable growth. However, a
just-released study by
Consumer Reportssuggests that shareholders of such
companies may experience indigestion ahead.
Tastebuds tell the tale
Historically, the biggest risk for food producers has
arguably been volatile commodity costs, which can squeeze the
fat out of margins faster than companies can raise product
prices. More recently, though, cheaper goods sold under
private-label and store brands have raised a
credible threat to the dominance of national brands.
Market-share data has told that story for years, but now
Consumer Reportshas iced the cake with an actual
taste test.
With experts sampling foods across 29 categories, blind
taste tests revealed that store-brand foods matched or bested
their national brand competitors in 23 of the 29 face-offs.
Target (NYSE: TGT),
Costco (NYSE: COST), and
Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) all boast
products that beat out the big-name competition.
While the tastes may be similar, the costs definitely
aren't. Store-brand foods included in the study sell at an
average 27% discount to their name-brand brethren, with the
widest reported gap spanning the difference between Costco's
vanilla extract at $0.35 per ounce and
McCormick 's (NYSE: MKC) product at $3.34.
Grab your loose change and Bundt pans, bakers.
What's more,
Consumer Reports' expert verdict holds flavor in the
real world: A Nielsen survey showed that 63% of consumers
believe private-label product quality matches that of name
brands, while 33% rank private label superior. As if that's
not enough to make blue-chip boardrooms sit up and take
notice, the private-label and store brand strategy is
evolving, says researcher Mintel, moving beyond the
"knock-off" model into full-fledged product
innovation.Â
Shop smart
So what's the investing move, Fools? It's no secret
that I've been fairly upbeat on many of the name-brand
packaged-foods producers, but I've also suggested that
investors grab some exposure to the private label/store brand
trend as a hedge. My take is little changed today.
Shares of private-label specialist
TreeHouse Foods (NYSE: THS) are up 26% since
I penned an
enthusiastic pieceon the company's prospects. TreeHouse
stock's rapid rise far outpaces the industry's -- and
potentially limits near-term gains. Alternatively, consider
Wal-Mart, whose recently revamped Great Value name is the
largest food brand in the country, by both volume and dollar
sales. Furthermore,
Kroger 's Dillons stores division benefits
smartly from store brands.
Of course, owning shares of a food retailer involves a
variety of operational risk, making the strategy an imperfect
hedge. The safest course, then, may also be the simplest:
Invest in the industry's classic blue chips only if you can
purchase a margin of safety. Disciplined buying, after all,
is gentle on even the most sensitive stomach.
Dig in to further Foolishness:
Ready for a Lip-Smacking Quarter?
2 Big Reasons to Love ConAgra
Can This Stock Be Gr-r-reat?
This article was originally published as
The Growing Threat to Consumer-Staples Companieson
Fool.com
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reserved.
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