The market environment these days reminds me of a chant
breaking out at a frat party. The chanters at such events
don't seem to really care about the implications of what
they're chanting for, they're just drunk and want to see a
particular outcome.
I can almost hear it: "Rally! Rally! Rally!"
If you're reading this, it's very likely that you're at
least
atthis raucous stock market party. And let me tell
you, just like in those hazy frat houses, it can be really
hard not to join in the chanting.
The excitement grows
Why is a rally so exciting? That seems all too obvious.
Those invested long in the market -- which includes most
investors -- are seeing stocks across the board head for the
sky. Over the past month, the S&P 500 index shrugged off
a quick downturn and crept up another 2%. Meanwhile, stocks
like
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) and
MasterCard (NYSE: MA) left the market in the
dust with gains of 39% and 18%, respectively.
With each passing day, investors see their portfolios
growing, and once again start to envision mai tais and
white-sand beaches in their retirement picture. Does it
matter what's driving the rally? Of course not! Does
the market's valuationmatter? Of course not!
"Rally! Rally! Rally!"
Sobering thoughts
But much like revenge, investing is best done when
you're not all hot under the collar. Whether it's a rally or
a market swoon, big movements have a tendency to rile up
investors and get them to act in ways that are contrary to
their best interests.
And it's not like the reasons to question the rally aren't
recognized. Last week, my Foolish colleague Jordan DiPietro
highlighted three thingsthat could sober up this rally in
a hurry. Namely, the continuing effect of the housing bust on
household pocketbooks, the slowing of government spending,
and a possible increase in the ridiculously low interest
rates that central banks have been offering. Meanwhile,
fellow Fool Alex Dumortier set to work
debunking the myththat sidelined cash would drive the
rally further.
To venture outside of the Foolish universe, PIMCO chief
Bill Gross has been
beating a drumagainst the rally for a while. In his most
recent market commentary, he showed that over the past 50
years, asset values in the U.S. have grown faster than the
economy. As he put it, over that time period "you would have
been far better off investing in paper than factories or
machinery or the requisite components of an educated
workforce."
If the correlation between economic growth and corporate
profit growth that Gross found is of any significance, it
seems very likely that we'll see the raging inferno of paper
asset growth slow down to a timid smolder.
"Rally! Rally! Rally?"
Instead of chanting
If the "F" of "Foolish" stands for anything, it very
well could be "Fundamental." If now seems like a time for
anything, it seems like a good time for getting back to the
fundamentals of investing.
What do I mean by this? Simply: Paying mind to Gross'
concerns and focusing on productive assets and companies that
are making real goods, and investing in those companies only
when they're at reasonable prices. Companies like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), which thrive on the
growth of paper assets, have been thrilling to watch over the
past decade or so, but in the sober light of day it may be
reasonable to question just
how much value they're actually addingto anything.
I've been taking what I believe is a Foolish view of the
investing landscape and eschewing the highfliers leading the
rally in favor of companies with
realoutput that I can invest in at a fair price.
Here are a few of the companies that I have my eye on:
Company
Business
Forward P/E
Dividend Yield
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
Pharmaceuticals, medical devices, consumer
products
13.1
3.3%
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
Semiconductors
12.7
3.0% Continued... |