Friday, October 30, 2009
Matt Koppenheffer :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Coming Rout in Stocks
by Matt Koppenheffer
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Think the S&P 500's eight-month, 57% rallyis safe? If you do, then you're in the minority.

A recent Bloomberg survey found that only 31% of respondents see investment opportunities; that's down from 35% in July. The picture is even worse in the U.S., where more than 50% said they are breaking out the riot shields and getting defensive.

Why all the worry? The pace and size of the rally is a big factor, since valuations are suddenly nowhere near as attractive as they were earlier this year. The memory of the financial meltdown is also still fresh, leading many to look at improving economic indicators with a healthy dose of skepticism.

In the U.S. specifically, there is a lot of concern over unemployment -- a quarter of the participants in the Bloomberg survey see the U.S. unemployment rate at 11% or more a year from now. And fretting over the fate of the dollaris undoubtedly playing its part.

Add this all up and you've got a very uneasy market that could get pessimistic enough to flip from rally to rout.

But now's hardly the time to start chewing your fingernails and taking up afternoon drinking. There are some simple things you can do to batten down your portfolio.

Sell now!
No, I don't mean everything. But many of us have stocks that we've been holding onto for the wrong reasons. Maybe it's the classic "just waiting to get back to even," or maybe it's simply a case of portfolio paralysis. Whatever the case, if there are stocks in your portfolio that you're unsure about, now may be the time to cut them loose.

Maybe it's a consumer stock like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), whose valuation makes you uneasy, or perhaps it's a financial like Citigroup (NYSE: C), whose balance sheet makes you want to cry. It can be tough enough to see a stock decline when you have confidence in it, but there's little solace when you're on the losing end of a stock you didn't really believe in in the first place.

So go ahead, take a moment, be honest, and look through your portfolio for stocks that you're holding for the wrong reasons. I'll wait right here for you.

Buy now!
Back? OK, now that you've cut the fat from your portfolio, it's time to get some stocks in there that are not only well-positioned for the current market environment, but also poised to outperform over the long run.

One option is to look to large, stable companies that we can depend on to perform regardless of what the economy is doing. It doesn't hurt to add the additional criteria of a decent dividend, so that you get paid no matter what the market is doing. Motley Fool Income Investor picks Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) are two great examples in this category.

Another option is to follow the suggestion of those Bloomberg poll-takers and scout out the emerging markets. Bloomberg noted that respondents saw the most potential in high-growth marketssuch as China, Brazil, and India. Obvious large-cap options to tackle in these geographies include China Mobile in China, Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) in Brazil, and Infosys in India. Of course there are plenty of lesser-known opportunities, like China Marine Food Group -- a stock identified by the Motley Fool Global Gains team -- that could be even better bets. Continued...

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About The Author

Matt Koppenheffer is a contributor to the Motley Fool.

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