My Foolish colleague Morgan Housel definitely got one
thing right in
his article yesterday:
Blackstone (NYSE: BX) scored big when it
IPO'd back in 2007. That IPO couldn't have been timed any
better, reaping billions for Blackstone management right
before the economy and
stock market unraveled.
Now, an internal memo indicates that the company may be
getting ready to sell -- through IPO and outright sale -- up
to 13 of its portfolio companies. Logically, Morgan asked:
"When smart people are selling,
should you be buying?"Â
And while I think the selling spree could be reason for
pause, I hardly think this spells pending market
destruction.
Executing a business model
Warren Buffettis renowned for having a decades-long view
of his investments at
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE:
BRK-B). When Buffett buys something, it's typically because
he wants to hang onto it for a long time. Heck, many of his
"investments" today involve buying companies outright so that
he can have access to their cash flow for years to come.
Not so with private equity. Whether we're talking about
Blackstone, KKR, or the private equity divisions at
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) or
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), private equity
firms are in the business of buying
andselling companies. They all have investors to
answer to and those investors want to see portfolio companies
get sold so that they can get paid back -- hopefully with a
handsome profit.
The past couple of years have put private equity firms
face to face with some of the most unaccommodating capital
markets in recent memory. Now that financial markets are
starting to open back up, it makes perfect sense that these
shops would finally make some portfolio exits.
Does private equity really call a top like
this?
Blackstone may be planning exits, but it has also been
making noise on the purchase front. Last week, the company
agreed to buy
Anheuser-Busch InBev 's theme park business
for $2.7 billion. And I expect that in short order, we'll be
hearing even more from the buyout front, particularly as
private equity investors start salivating again, and buyout
companies are able to start raising new funds.
But is this what a private equity top looks like? Sure,
Blackstone may have called the previous top by selling
itself, but there wasn't a whole heck of a lot of
selling going on at that time. Back when the market was
topping, private equity firms were tripping over themselves
to raise ever-larger funds and put together mind-boggling
deals.
When private equity funds can again raise
multibillion-dollar sums with nothing more than a wink and a
smile,
thenit's time to worry. Continued... |