What is the "new normal" anyway? Does it simply mean that
former swashbuckling financiers like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) will throttle back
their
risk-taking? Does it mean that consumers won't be rushing
out to buy
Coach (NYSE: COH) purses by the armful or
fill up their SUVs with electronics from
Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)?
Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO's massive Total Return bond
fund, has focused on the forces of delevering,
deglobalization, and reregulation as drivers of a new state
of affairs for American business and investing. He's
concluded that all of this will add up to a period of slower
economic growth, a reliance on government intervention, and a
vulnerable dollar.
Robert McNamee, who wrote
The New Normal: Great Opportunities in a Time of Great
Risk, quips on his website:
Wake up and smell the coffee. This is not your father's
economy. And it's not the boom that inflated our
expectations and then exploded. But it's also not the doom
and gloom we've been mired in for nearly three years now!
So, wake up.
In short, no matter whose theory you subscribe to, the
idea is that things, they are a-changin'. But what does this
all mean for investing in the wild and wooly world of
small-cap stocks? To answer that question, I turned to the
folks over at
Motley Fool Hidden Gems
.
Stan Huber, senior analyst:
New normal or not, the general case for dedicating a
portion of one's portfolio to small-cap stocks doesn't
change. These companies are underfollowed by Wall Street and
the opportunities to find mispricing in the market are
superior. Also, many small caps have very straightforward
businesses that can be simply modeled and easily tracked,
reducing the possibility of unwelcome surprises.
Take
Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD), for
instance. With chicken wings and sports as the cornerstone of
the restaurant chain, it doesn't take an MBA student to
understand this business. And this spicy wing-slinger really
knows how to grow -- it boosted revenue over 230% in the five
years ending in 2008. Yet this still isn't a name you'll hear
being thrown around much on CNBC.
My conception of the "new normal" is an environment in
which credit is tighter and the consumer cuts back on
discretionary spending. While I might make some changes in
which sectors I focus on and will definitely require balance
sheet strength, small caps remain a key allocation component.
In my experience, small caps are often market leaders coming
out of a recessionary trough because they are fundamentally
simpler businesses and can react more rapidly to downsizing
and growth when necessary.
Mike Olsen, senior analyst:
This past year, we learned that stocks can do something
other than go up -- namely, they can go down. And fast.
OK, but seriously, I don't think that it's particularly
worthwhile to paint any class of stocks -- small, large,
growth, or value -- with broad strokes.
Macroeconomic themesare certainly a relevant
consideration, but for those of us that look at stocks from a
business perspective they're only as important as the impact
they have on a particular business. So are small caps, growth
stocks, or value stocks more or less charming one year hence?
That's anyone's guess.
There are currently two themes I am focused on: Quality
and conspicuous consumption. There's no question that the
consumer has had the rug pulled out from under him. As of now
we probably haven't seen the full extent of this, but we know
it's going to continue to have a major impact. As a result,
when it comes to many a consumer, industrial, or other
consumption-oriented stock, my focus is on finding
high-quality businesses, attractive valuations, and
properly sizing my positions. Continued... |