Thursday, September 17, 2009
Matt Koppenheffer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Roundtable: What Does the New Normal Mean for Small
by Matt Koppenheffer
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
 

What is the "new normal" anyway? Does it simply mean that former swashbuckling financiers like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) will throttle back their risk-taking? Does it mean that consumers won't be rushing out to buy Coach (NYSE: COH) purses by the armful or fill up their SUVs with electronics from Best Buy (NYSE: BBY)?

Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO's massive Total Return bond fund, has focused on the forces of delevering, deglobalization, and reregulation as drivers of a new state of affairs for American business and investing. He's concluded that all of this will add up to a period of slower economic growth, a reliance on government intervention, and a vulnerable dollar.

Robert McNamee, who wrote The New Normal: Great Opportunities in a Time of Great Risk, quips on his website:

Wake up and smell the coffee. This is not your father's economy. And it's not the boom that inflated our expectations and then exploded. But it's also not the doom and gloom we've been mired in for nearly three years now! So, wake up.

In short, no matter whose theory you subscribe to, the idea is that things, they are a-changin'. But what does this all mean for investing in the wild and wooly world of small-cap stocks? To answer that question, I turned to the folks over at Motley Fool Hidden Gems .

Stan Huber, senior analyst:
New normal or not, the general case for dedicating a portion of one's portfolio to small-cap stocks doesn't change. These companies are underfollowed by Wall Street and the opportunities to find mispricing in the market are superior. Also, many small caps have very straightforward businesses that can be simply modeled and easily tracked, reducing the possibility of unwelcome surprises.

Take Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD), for instance. With chicken wings and sports as the cornerstone of the restaurant chain, it doesn't take an MBA student to understand this business. And this spicy wing-slinger really knows how to grow -- it boosted revenue over 230% in the five years ending in 2008. Yet this still isn't a name you'll hear being thrown around much on CNBC.

My conception of the "new normal" is an environment in which credit is tighter and the consumer cuts back on discretionary spending. While I might make some changes in which sectors I focus on and will definitely require balance sheet strength, small caps remain a key allocation component. In my experience, small caps are often market leaders coming out of a recessionary trough because they are fundamentally simpler businesses and can react more rapidly to downsizing and growth when necessary.

Mike Olsen, senior analyst:
This past year, we learned that stocks can do something other than go up -- namely, they can go down. And fast.

OK, but seriously, I don't think that it's particularly worthwhile to paint any class of stocks -- small, large, growth, or value -- with broad strokes. Macroeconomic themesare certainly a relevant consideration, but for those of us that look at stocks from a business perspective they're only as important as the impact they have on a particular business. So are small caps, growth stocks, or value stocks more or less charming one year hence? That's anyone's guess.

There are currently two themes I am focused on: Quality and conspicuous consumption. There's no question that the consumer has had the rug pulled out from under him. As of now we probably haven't seen the full extent of this, but we know it's going to continue to have a major impact. As a result, when it comes to many a consumer, industrial, or other consumption-oriented stock, my focus is on finding high-quality businesses, attractive valuations, and properly sizing my positions. Continued...

1 2
| Full Article & Comments | Next >
Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

Matt Koppenheffer is a contributor to the Motley Fool.

Be the first to read Matt Koppenheffer's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.

Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
The very best in financial advice from Dave Ramsey, Larry Kudlow, Motely Fool and many more plus Dilbert!