History's greatest investor,
Warren Buffett, has two simple rules.
A big, sarcastic thank-you, Warren!
Sure, practically everyone has lost money in this
market -- including Buffett. But take it easy on the Oracle
here, because he's dead-on. Buffett's intense focus on not
just investing in great opportunities but
avoiding terrible oneshas been the key to epic
success.
Avoiding soul-sucking investments -- what we investing
nerds dub "value traps" -- is hardly rocket science. Yet,
incredibly, I see investors new and salty alike make the same
mistakes over and over again, breaking Buffett's rules and
walking right into what seem like obvious value traps.
Having spent way too much time thinking about it, I've
concluded that there are five primary categories of these
dreaded mistakes. Avoiding these five traps will save you
time, money, and more than a little heartache.
1. The quarter-life crisis
These are real heartbreakers. You find a dominant
company whose once sky-high growth has stalled, and its
shares along with it. "TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15
times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!"
you say. "Its earnings have doubled over the past five years,
but the shares are
downover the same time period. Sounds like a
steal!"
Snap! You just walked into a value trap.
Investors falsely believe that names like
Yahoo! will see their relative valuations
return to their headier days. They won't. Why? For starters,
growth has slowed, technology evolved, and competition
emerged. But all of that misses the
realreason. Instead of returning incremental profits
to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck
shareholder value by chasing growth through non-core
expansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the
ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice
per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock
option-driven dilution.
Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they're ready,
willing, and able to follow the lead of an
IBM (NYSE: IBM) or
Oracle into dividend-paying adulthood.
2. The soaring cyclical
Here's the rub about cyclical stocks: Their valuations
are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when
they've reached their priciest, and look priciest when
they've reached their cheapest.
Take nearly any mining player from last summer as an
example.
BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP),
Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP),
Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU), and
Vale (NYSE: VALE) looked dirt cheap via
crude,
PEG-style valuations. But savvy investors know that
cyclical companies' profits mean-revert, which is why
cyclical stocks' P/E multiples stay low during booms and high
during busts. In other words, you should be looking at
cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.
3. The small-cap Methuselah
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a
halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value
trap: the Small-Cap Methuselah.
Century-old small caps you'd never heard of were wrapping
up five-year runs of 20% annualized earnings growth. Analysts
went gaga, extrapolating those growth rates forward like the
party would never end. Valuations followed suit.
Gaga analyst, meet mean-reversion.
You won't find many long-run compounding machines within
the small-cap space. Show me a company with a long, proven
history of creating serious shareholder value, and I'll show
you a mid- or large-cap stock.
4. The too-high yielder
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for
one of three reasons:
Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE), or master limited
partnerships like
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners (NYSE:
BWP).
Broadly speaking, a high payout is a good thing. There's a
fine line, though. At
Motley Fool Income Investor
, we're looking for that sweet spot where an attractive
payout meets rest-easy status.
Take one
Income Investor
Buy First recommendation, payroll processing kingpin
Automatic Data Processing . ADP handles the
payroll for one in six American workers, collecting a small
cut for each one it distributes. ADP's average payroll client
has spent more than a decade with the company, thanks to the
high switching costs for payroll processing and ADP's unique
ability to compete on price and service for large
companies.
That stability helps foot a fat, incredibly secure,
CD-topping payout of 3.4%. Tack on plenty of upside on a jobs
rebound, and you're looking at awfully low-hanging fruit for
the income-loving investor.
5. The unopened book
Book values need to be adjusted -- especially heading
into and during recessions. Acquisition-happy companies
inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they'd booked while
making bloated acquisitions in the years previous. The book
values of asset-centric plays (homebuilders, natural resource
producers, etc.) also need a good tweaking to reflect the
depressed values of those assets.
Don't get me wrong: I'm
all forbuying stocks when they're down and out. We
do just that at
Income Investor
. But there's a catch: We're only interested in good
values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies
with years of exceptional performance behind
andahead of them. And, of course, ones that pay us
to wait for our thesis to play out.
But I digress. Continued... |