Friday, June 12, 2009
Joe Magyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Greatest Company in the History of the World
by Joe Magyer
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"It's the world's greatest company, period."
-- Arjun Murti, Goldman Sachs analyst

I'm what a lot of folks would call "obsessed" with finding great stocks. So when I heard Goldman Sachs oil oracle Arjun Murti boldly label a company as the world's greatest, you'd best believe I paid attention.

That's pretty high praise, but the facts speak for themselves. In fact, my research led me to take Murti's claim one step further: This is the greatest company in the history of the world.

The corporate titan in question produced modern-day history's greatest fortune, and earned double the combined 2008 profits of AT&T (NYSE: T) and Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM). If you'd invested $1,000 in this company in 1950, your shares would now be worth about $2.5 million. And incredibly, this giant still has decades of slick profits ahead of it.

The greatest
Meet the world's greatest company: ExxonMobil . Biggest, strongest, most efficient, most evil -- there's hardly a superlative that hasn't been applied to this most successful of the Standard Oil grandchildren. But while much is made of just how great or how evil folks peg Exxon to be, there's strangely little discussion over the core drivers of why its stock has been a huge success.

It would be easy to say that Exxon's success, and that of Standard Oil's lineage -- Chevron , ConocoPhillips , BP (NYSE: BP) via Amoco, etc. -- was just a function of being in the right place at the right time. Hawking oil and gasoline at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, after all, is a Category 5 tailwind.

But there's much more to Exxon's success. Fortunately, we can also spot those discernable traits in other opportunities.

1. An owner-operator culture
John Rockefeller didn't run an infamously efficient organization just for kicks. As the largest shareholder, he had a vested interest in the success of Standard Oil. When managers and employees are shareholders alongside you, they share your desire to manage the business for the long term.

Take a look at the cutthroat world of big-box retail, where smart growth and a fanatical focus on controlling costs are crucial to long-term success. Which companies in this space have ranked among the biggest winners for investors over the past 20 years? Costco and Wal-Mart . Both are known as much for their insider ownership as for their tenacious zeal for efficiency and maximum value.

By the way, there's still plenty of alignment between Exxon's leadership and outside shareholders. The company consistently posts better margins and returns on capital than its Big Oil brethren. CEO and Chairman Rex Tillerson has plenty of incentive to keep it that way; he owns 1.1 million Exxon shares.

2. Enduring demand
Demand for oil is strikingly consistent. For most companies, steady demand equates to steady cash generation. But just as importantly for Exxon as the consistency of demand for oil is the duration of that demand. Constant doubts about the staying power of oil have helped keep Exxon's shares perpetually undervalued, allowing Exxon and dividend reinvestors to steadily gobble up shares at attractive prices.

For another case study in the importance of demand, consider Procter & Gamble , which I recently recommended to our Income Investor members. P&G's core products (razor blades, toilet paper, disposable diapers, etc.) all face little chance of technological obsolescence. Better yet, demand is regular and firmly entrenched. Maybe I'm just a pretty boy, but I'd be living in my car before I stopped buying razors.

Now consider companies whose fates hinge on innovation, such as search player Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) or solar stars Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) or SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWR). Yahoo!'s investors have learned the hard way that staying atop any realm in techdom for any meaningful period of time is exceedingly difficult. As for solar, color me bullish in the industry and bearish on the companies. I have no clue what any of these companies will look like in 10 years – if they exist at all. Exxon, however ... well, I'm pretty confident about what they'll still be doing in 10 years. Call it a hunch.

Again, historical results say it all here. According to dividend guru Jeremy Siegel, the highest-returning S&P 500 stocks from 1957 to 2003 were: Continued...

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About The Author

Joe Magyer is a senior analyst for the Motley Fool.

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Peak oil?
I am reminded of the warnings by the Club of Rome some 35 years ago, about the impending end of petroleum reserves. Like so many prognostications from the '70's (population bomb, global cooling, etc.) that turned out to be off-base, no one knows for certain how much oil is in the earth nor exactly how it's created. It's possible that we'll never run out of crude - in fact, I'd bet on it.
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