Dear General Motors (NYSE: GM) Shareholder,

Breathe. C'mon, deep breaths. There you go.

I know you've seen a lot. You've witnessed superior foreign operators Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), and Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) grind away at Motown for years. You saw Rick Wagoner, Bob Nardelli, and Ford 's (NYSE: F) Alan Mulally called in front of Congress like petulant children. And now this. The death throes.

Trust me, I know this has been tough -- I received your hate mail. Those nasty bondholders said no to a debt-to-stock swap that would have helped GM avoid bankruptcy court. And yesterday, I even went so far as to tell you that your shares were on the brink of becoming worthless and that you should sell immediately.

But what of today's news? Sloppy reporting and a less-than-crystal-clear GM 8-K filing have contributed to a torrent of ill-formed conclusions, jerking GM's shares to and fro. But what is actually happening? Let's review.

The facts
Here's what we definitively know. Again, I recommend reviewing the 8-K filing if you're a GM shareholder.

The scenarios
Frankly, I'm flabbergasted that GM's shares are trading for anything more than pennies apiece. Again, let's review the possible outcomes:

Overwhelmingly most likely: GM files for Chapter 11 protection within the next week, and current shareholders are completely wiped out.

Possible, but unlikely: GM files for Chapter 11, and current shareholders keep some slices of pie, though likely at only a fraction of their current value. Continued...